Introduction
In the election to the Delhi State assembly, AAP emerged as the second
largest party and formed the government with the help of the Congress party. As far as Delhi is considered it should have 4-5 years till the next election to
demonstrate its abilities. However, it
has already declared its intention to enter the General elections in a big
way. So the public has the right to use
all available information including the utterances of its leaders, their
personal actions and its performance so far in Delhi, to make a judgement about
its national potential! Given its
outsized ambition one is forced make quick judgements about it from the
available information.
Anti-corruption Crusade
The most positive feature of the AAP is its declared objective of
attacking corruption in Public life and the Bureaucracy. In fact one could call this its USP to the
urban voters, particularly the urban middle class, who are fed up of the
harassment and corruption. The appeal of this issue encompasses the poor who
face the brunt of the corruption of the lower bureaucracy and its overbearing
attitude towards the citizens who they are supposed to service. It also touches the small business man who
has to deal with extortion, corruption and inadequate public services on a
daily basis. Thus this issue cuts across all classes and unites them. Given the
origins of the AAP leadership in the Anna Hazare movement for probity in public
life and against corruption, it has a certain amount of credibility in this
respect. However, this goodwill is not
likely to last till the general election, unless it is able to demonstrate that
it can bring the corrupt (who it had so vociferously attacked when in
opposition) to book and make a visible difference in the extent and degree of
corruption in Delhi. It should keep a
lazer focus on this issue, introduce the promised Lok Ayukt bill and show how a
reduction of corruption can lead to an improvement in the quality and volume of
services provided (including for example in the incidence of rape & water-sewage-sanitation). Given that estimated fraction of corrupt
payments on virtually all government expenditures ranges from 30% to 50% this
is far from impossible!
Correctable Weakness
Constitutional & Govt. Rules
Having never run a government before, the
public statements and actions of several AAP ministers seem to display a weak
understanding of government systems and procedures, though this cannot be said
of Mr Kejriwal a former IRS officer. This is however, correctable with a little
serious effort to listen and understand Governmental systems and procedures
with an open mind (instead of suspecting every interlocutor to be
corrupt). These include the
constitutional separation of powers and responsibilities between Center, States
and localities (Nagarpalikas and Panchayats), between Government, Judiciary and
other institutions and between ministers and their secretaries. Some of AAP’s leaders also have to understand the complexity
of government decisions. Most major decisions
have positive and negative effects on different sub-sets of voters. Any such
decision will therefore have to be judged by its net overall effect. This is an assessment that political leaders
have to make. It cannot be decided by
mohalla sabhas, by those who agitate and shout the loudest or through pols & referendum. Voter interaction is highly recommended for
understanding public problems and concerns, but not for making decisions that
affect many sub-groups, some positively & others negatively.
Self-Absorption(righteousness?)
There also seems to be an excessively individualistic approach to corruption,
with little thought or understanding of the pervasive and systemic nature of corruption in India today. The AAP leaders have identified a set of “bad
guys” in politics and business and posited themselves as the “good guys”. It is assumed that once they the “good guys”
replace the political “bad guys” and go after the “bad guys” in business most
of India’s problems will be easily sorted out. This self-righteous approach,
earlier seen in the V P Singh anti-corruption campaign, is extremely naive! Though trial & punishment of the corrupt has important signalling effects, an anti-corruption campaign is
unlikely to be sustained in the medium-long run, unless systemic improvements
are made. This includes institutional improvements like the Lok Ayukt bill, police and bureaucratic reform and economic policies such those related to land use, auctioning of government land and public transport & parking, that create incentives for honest behavior.
Negatives
From the past statements and behavior of
the AAP leaders, their academic contacts
and the kind of prominent personalities that these leaders have invited
& enticed into the party (as against those who applied and/or requested to
join it), one can discern two potential
negatives in this party.
NGO Ethos
Given the background of the original
leaders (as well as of the prominent personalities they are trying to attract
into the leadership) in the NGO sector, they share the micro-specialized approach of these NGOs. Most of the activist NGOs
operate at the village or mohalla level and have a good idea of the problems
faced by the local people. To the extent that problem and solution is purely
local they can contribute to the solution, even though the issue of scalability
is often ignored -success depends on every locality have the same quality of
leaders who are just not available elsewhere. But when any potential solution
has repercussions beyond the locality to the district, State or Nation, their
approach is often too narrow to offer a viable & sustainable solution. In
other words such NGOs usually lack an understanding of broader macro issues and
often act betray a self-centered arrogance towards other equally well -meaning experts! There is thus a serious danger that the AAP
will rapidly deteriorate into a Federation of NGOs with narrow interests, thus
bringing the worst features of the NAC right into the government, with not even
a cabinet system to limit the macro damage to an indulgent list of micro
policies.
Leftist Ideology
Many of the academics, intellectuals and
think tankers associated with the AAP leadership appear to be leftist adherents
of State Socialism with an ideological distrust of markets. They seem to have learned little from the 30
years of Nehru-Indira socialism and the LPQ Raj from 1950 to 1979. They even refuse to believe the fact that the
real per capita income (Pc GDP at PPP) in India declined progressively from 29
per cent of World average to about 20 per cent of World average during this
period. In other words, the ostensibly pro-poor Socialism reduced the Welfare
of the average Indian relative to that of the average World inhabitant by nine
per cent points (or 30%). There is
therefore a serious danger that an AAP government would re-introduce failed
policies, which put the economy back on a lower growth path with serious
adverse consequences for growth of job opportunities and public welfare!
Conclusion
The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has stirred up the political system by showing
that an underdog can come from nowhere to second place finish in India’s
capital. Its anti-corruption plank makes
it a good candidate for running urban local governments, where it could
demonstrate the positive effect of reducing corruption and thus generating
better public services as well as saving money that can be used to transform
service delivery. However, given its NGO
origin & character and leftist, State socialist ideological baggage (that
it seems to carry), it could be an uncertain proposition at the State level and
downright dangerous at the Central government level.
This judgment can and will need
to be reviewed, If and when AAP is able to establish a track record of good
policies and governance.
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A version of this post appeared at, http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/PolicyAnalysis/entry/evaluation-of-aam-admi-party-from-national-perspective