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Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Perspective on Economy: June 2015



Questions Submitted by Bloomberg (KG)

External Developments & Exchange Rate

Q1: We have rates tightening coming in the US, while ECB and BOJ are easing policies. How do you see these diverging monetary policies impacting the rupee?

A1: The rupee appreciated by 10% in REER36 terms, during 2014-15. This appreciation had a negative effect on both the exporting and import competing sectors of the economy and slowed the recovery of the Globalized segment of the Corporate sector.  The real appreciation has been partly corrected in April-June 2015. The tightening of rates in the US, by appreciating the USD against the “index”, will help complete this correction.
Q2: What's your outlook on the rupee? Where do you see the rupee by the end of Dec. 2015? Also, please mention the reasons that will be influencing the rupee in 2015?
A2: The correction mentioned in A1 should be complete by year end. The speed of adjustment will depend on the relative movements of the USD, Euro and Yen and on the change in US monetary policy(formal end of QE)
Q3: On balance, how do you think the RBI will respond to evolving situation?   Will it keep the rates high to defend the rupee amid financial markets volatility or do you think it will cut rates going forward to support growth?
A3: I don’t speculate on what the RBI will do. The policy is quite clear: To dampen excessive volatility in the rupee and to ensure that competitive market forces determine the MLT value of the rupee.  I expect that short term volatility arising from global monetary changes and capital flow adjustments to be limited and manageable.  A Greek exit from Euro could cause a disruption to all economies for about a quarter.

Inflation & Monetary Policy

Q4: What's your outlook on the RBI's monetary policy? Do you think, it should cut rates now since CPI inflation has come down, while growth still remains tepid?
A4: The CPI inflation rate has declined by 3% points over the last 12 months (following a decline of over 2% points during  the previous 12 months), raising real interest rates by 2-3%.  Thus policy rates can safely be cut by 2% points. Aa  0.75% points of this cut has already taken place,  there is room for a further cut in policy rates by 1.25% points.
Q5: When do you think the RBI will start cutting rates? What is it that the RBI is waiting for to cut rates?
A5: I do not speculate on RBI actions. However, one issue which all Central Banks look at is "inflation expectations". Because of uncertainty about global oil prices and about domestic food prices because of differing monsoon forecasts, some surveys do show possibility of a rise in inflation from the current 5% to 6% by the year end. However, others forecast a further fall in inflation. Greater clarity on this issue could determine timing of monetary policy actions.

Oil Price & Deficits

Q6: What's your outlook on the government's efforts to reduce the budget deficit? (do you think, it will succeed in containing budget deficit at 4.1% of the GDP in Fy15 and 3.6% in Fy16)?
A6: I am confident that the Central Government will achieve the fiscal deficit targets for FY15 and FY16.
Q7: How do you view the drop in global crude oil prices and how will it impact inflation, budget deficit and the CAD in India?
A7: The drop in crude oil prices has already helped in reducing the Current Account Deficit and the Fiscal Deficit. The impact on CPI inflation is much less than most analysts have asserted. CPI Inflation in "Fuel and lighting" was about 1.6% in the First quarter of 2013 and rose to about 3% in the first quarter of 2015.

Economic Growth

Q8: What's your outlook on the Indian economy in fiscal year to March 2016? What factors you think will be driving growth?
A8: Though policy reforms are critical to sustained high growth, they will take time to affect measurable economic outcome.  Macro-economic re-balancing (“Macro Pivot”),  “Balance sheet recession” issues and the global recovery  will be key drivers during the current year . Growth will therefore depend on  (1) The speed and strength of the US recovery. (2) The speed and extent of monetary policy loosening (to reverse the tightening that has occurred).  (3) The speed with which the Central Government is able to shift expenditures from consumption subsidies to infrastructure investment. (4) A  resolution of the issue of Non -Performing  Assets(NPA) arising from over-optimistic demand forecasts and forced infrastructure lending by Public Sector Banks, and consequent freeing of frozen assets-credits.
   On current performance on these four issues, I expect GDP growth to accelerate by about 0.5 per cent point over 2014-15. Faster action could accelerate recovery by another 0.25 per cent point (i.e. by 0.75% over 2014-15).

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Educate in India: Ease of Educating



Introduction

   The time has come to spread our wings from “Make in India” to “Educate in India.”  Lakhs of Students go abroad to study every year, many of whose parents sell assets or incur debt to manage the higher cost of living in the developed countries.  Some are forced to go abroad because they can’t find admission in a university or college of quality suitable for their level of intelligence & motivation. Outdated ideology prevents us from reforming the system to provide better education at a fraction of the cost incurred abroad. The Jungle of Laws, Rules, regulations, bureaucratic controls, procedures and process puts a pall of gloom over every economic activity, be it manufacturing, agriculture or services, keeping many from sprouting, blooming and spreading.  The focus must therefore expand from “Ease of Doing Business” in India to “Ease of Educating” in India.
   Though the education sector has been growing fairly rapidly, it is still inadequate to the needs and demands of society and its average quality has been deteriorating. With reforms the rate of growth of the sector could be doubled and its quality improved manifold without an excessive strain on limited government revenues.  The education sector in India can be transformed within half a decade given the right mix of policy, regulation and reorientation of government expenditure.  This in turn can have a profound impact on the quality of output in all sectors of the economy and the competitiveness of Indian industry, services and agriculture.  What we need is constitutionally and legally sanctioned competition in tertiary and secondary education, replacement of bureaucratic controls by professional regulations along with private-public partnership to ensure universal primary education within 3-5 years.

Policy & Regulatory Framework

    The key to success is removal of current bureaucratic controls and interference with aggressively promoted competition by professionally empowered regulators (not controllers).  A policy framework for the competitive supply of education by non-government organization will have the following elements:
a)       Rating Agencies: University Grants Commission /All India Council for Technical Education  / National Accreditation Council / Medical Council of India/ Professional Councils,  would Register / License rating agencies in their area of authority / expertise. Alternatively a completely new organization could be set up for the purpose of accrediting & monitoring rating agencies. Some of these rating agencies will specialize in specific subjects, but others could cover multiple topics or broad areas.  These rating agencies would devise a system for rating the quality of educational institutions and offer their services to all education service providers (private & public).
b)      Private Entry: Free entry of registered societies (non-profit) and publicly listed (education) Companies in all fields of education, subject to the following pre-specified conditions:
i) Quality Rating: Compulsory rating by accredited agency (prior to accepting any fees from students).  Ratings must be renewed every year at least for the first 3-5 years.  Periodicity of compulsory rating can be reduced thereafter.
ii) Transparent Fees & Accounts: Fees must be published and known in advance. Accounts must be audited by CA and results made public if revenues/fees received exceed Rs. 10 lakhs. Un-audited institutions must publish their basic/ minimum accounts (revenues, expenditure, profits, capital investment, no of students, average fee per student) in prescribed format.
c)      Subsidy Accounting: Any education society that gets below market-price land or other assistance must give means-cum merit scholarships to needy students equal in value to the effective subsidy.
d)     Government Grants/Scholarship: An impartial system for determination of what would be a fair and affordable contribution of parents to children’s education based on family income/ wealth.  This system would also calculate eligibility for education loans and grants.  All those wanting scholarship grants would have to provide the required information so that their requirements of scholarship grants and loans can be evaluated. 
Such and integrated system can be modeled on the government run online system that exists in the US, but modified to suit Indian circumstances. The system would ensure that the poor and lower middle class children get the grants and the middle class the loans that they need to educate children to the level of their capabilities and interest.
e)      Removal/minimization of controls and restrictions: For instance specification of particular infrastructure and/or number of teachers etc. would be redundant, as rating agencies would evaluate institutions based on output, peer evaluation and other relevant aspects.

Phasing

The reform could be phased in gradually if political/administrative risk aversion makes it necessary. They could start with Tertiary education and extend to Secondary education within 3 years and to Primary education thereafter.  We could also start by freeing entry of Non-profit organizations (domestic and foreign) registered under the societies act, trusts and co-operatives and follow it up with entry for registered education companies(within three years).
We could immediately allow free entry of A grade global universities (the top 500-1000 universities/colleges in the World, which have been identified by various studies/agencies) into India. 100% ownership of the local unit by the international unit would ensure 100% commitment to quality as they would like to maintain their brand equity.
  B grade global universities would have to register and get local grading like the domestic ones.  The entry of C grade global universities/colleges/ institutions should require prior approval and tight regulation.

Government Resources

As per ASER surveys, in 2010 nationally, 46.3% of all children in Std. V could not read a Std. II level text. This proportion increased to 51.8% in 2011 and further to 53.2% in 2012. For Std. V children enrolled in government schools, the percentage of children unable to read Std. II level text has increased from 49.3% (2010) to 56.2% (2011) to 58.3% (2012).
The State governments should focus their attention and resources on ensuring genuine universal primary education.  For this purpose all types of public-partnerships must be explored (e.g. management contracts, capital subsidies to NGOs). Government school teachers must be made accountable to user associations consisting of parents and grand parents of school age children and/or local government.  This can be done by giving authority to these associations (progressively) to (a) Grade teachers (negative marking for class absence), (b) determine a part of their salary (10% say) and finally (c) to dismiss them depending on the grade teachers receive over 3 to 5 years. 
The Central Government’s higher education funds should be focussed on promoting science education, generation of PhD s & good college/university teachers and financing of R&D in all subjects. They should also be used to set a comprehensive E-education platform that can be accessed by all NGOs, teachers and students.

Conclusion

    The availability and quality of education in India can be transformed by introducing modern regulations and promoting competition.  This requires an objective rating system an free entry of highly rated educational institutions. Government can then focus on those areas that only it can do best and where private education systems are known to be inadequate. 

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A version of this article appeared on the OpEd page of the Economic Times on June 11, 2015 under the banner, “India Needs Higher Learning Excellence.”

Saturday, June 6, 2015

World Excess Capacity Slows Corporate Recovery



Introduction

   The Economic Survey 2014-15 said that, India has reached a sweet spot – rare in the history of nations - is in which it could finally be launched on a double digit medium-term growth trajectory.” It also stated that,”in the short run, growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices,..”  Every Investment analysts of repute and every analyst who has written a newspaper article or commented on TV, agrees that India has benefited greatly from recent changes in global economic environment.  Further an over whelming majority of India analysts also agree that this is the major reason for a transformation of India’s external position (CAD) and the dramatic decline in inflation. This article shows that this is only one side of the external coin.  The other negative side effect of the same external environment is the prolonged U shaped bottom that we observe in the Index of industrial production for manufacturing and the fluctuating fortunes of the corporate sector. 

   It is true that global oil and other commodity prices, collapsed in 2014. It is also true that the collapse of oil prices and related refined products and manufactures based on them have had very positive effect on the current account deficit and the Fiscal deficit. Contrary to popular analysis, the CPI inflation for Fuel in lighting actually accelerated during 2014-15 from 1.6% in October-December 2013 to 2.3% in Jan-March 2015. Worse, the same global fundamentals that led to the collapse of global commodity prices have had a deleterious effect on the World  economy and the Indian corporate sector since the global crisis of 2008.

External Dynamics

   The story starts with world trade and GDP growth boom in the 2000s. This boom, almost a bubble in some respects, was exploded by the Global Financial crisis of 2008, leaving in its wake large excess capacities in the tradeable sectors of the World economy.  World GDP growth, which averaged 3.1% to 3.2% during the 10-15 years ending 2008, collapsed to 2.0% in the following seven years to 2015. The nature of the bubble is better captured by the growth in world trade imports of goods and services. Rate of growth of World imports accelerated from an average of 5.8% per year in 1999-2003 to 7.8% per year in 2004-2008 and then collapsed to 3% per year during 2009-2013.  World gross fixed investment grew at an average rate of 5.4% during 2003-2007, more than double the average growth of 2.5% during the previous five years, before collapsing. As in most recessions in the west, the globalized corporate sector tightened its belt and  improved efficiency in the next few years, preserving its profitability, and  even increasing it in some countries for a couple of years. The globalized parts of the Indian corporates sector did the same.

     The corrective World-wide fiscal stimulus and monetary easing that followed the seizing of Global financial system at the end of 2008, led to a quick recovery in the developing and emerging market economies.  But it had some effects that weren’t necessarily beneficial for all countries. This was partly due to short term focus and mistiming of policies. Many developed countries switched from a relaxed fiscal policy to a tightening one from 2010, instead of correcting the weak demand excess capacity problem in tradeable goods and services.  This put an extra burden on Developed country Central banks at a time when monetary policy was already constrained by near zero interest rates. The commodity boom/bubble revived quickly after a temporary collapse at the end of 2008, and  continued for several years beyond the World GDP & trade growth slowdown. It was finally pricked in 2014, as a credible announcement of an end to the US Feds Quantitative Easing (QE) laid the grounds for its collapse.

     Some large emerging economies compounded the global excess capacity problem by continued investments through large risky injections of policy directed credit or expansionary fiscal policy or a fusion of both.  For instance the rate of growth of China’s gross fixed investment declined only marginally from 13.4% per year during 2002 to 2007 to 12% per year during 2008 to 2013, while overall world GFCF collapsed from 4.6% to 1.8%. Consequently, the excess capacity in tradeable goods and services did not reduce and worsened for some products. This low demand and excess capacity meant low or non-existent opportunities for private capital in developed countries, driving it into commodity markets and keeping commodity prices booming.

Global Excess Capacity

  The negative effects of the global demand deficit and excess capacity have affected different countries to different degree. The export oriented economies of China, East and South East Asia have been most severely affected.  India, which has an export neutral economy, has been less affected overall. But India is a dual economy with a substantial part of its corporate sector globalized. A sub-index for this globalized sector, derived from the Index of Industrial production (IIP) for manufacturing, was in the last quarter of 2014, still below its level in the first quarter of 2011. Its average growth rate during the last four years was -0.3%, compared to an average growth rate of 3.1% for the non-globalized IIP sub index and 6.7% for the IIP for electricity.  Part of the corporate sector and most of the non-corporate economy remains relatively isolated from the global cross-currents as suggested by the robust growth of electricity supply. The Motor vehicles sector, which is somewhat shielded from the global pressures, has also bottomed out and shows signs of recovery despite the negative effect of rising real rates of interest during 2014-15. The recovery of growth of private consumption (5.2%, 6.2%, 7.1%), gross fixed investment (-0.3%, 3.0%, 4.1%) and GDP (5.1%, 6.9%, 7.1%) in 2012-3, 2013-4 and 2014-5, shown by the new GDP series, is therefore consistent with the dual nature of the Indian economy.

    One implication of the negative effect of the external environment on the corporate sector is the slower recovery in tax revenues. The corporate sector contributes tax revenues, not just directly as corporate income tax, but also through the income taxes paid by its employees and excise taxes collected by it (organized sector is important source of both). This negative revenue effect of the external recession has offset some of the positive effect of reduction in oil related subsidies on the fiscal deficit.

Net Effect

    The external environment has therefore had both a positive and negative effect on the Indian economy.  The negative effects of the global recession were felt immediately from the start of the global crises, but were masked by the temporary bubble created in India in 2010-11, through directed credit to PPP infrastructure contractors. These re-emerged with the pricking of the local Indian bubble.  The positive effects of global recession on global commodity prices were delayed by global monetary expansion, but emerged in 2013-14 with the prospective end of US QE. Further the negative effects on the globalized sector have been magnified whenever the rupee appreciated in real effective exchange rate (REER 36 country) terms: Thus between September 2013 to April 2015 the REER appreciated by 11.4%, with the inevitable consequence on recovery 

    On balance therefore, the net effect of external factors on the Indian economy during 2014-15, has been clearly positive on the Current Account, mildly positive on the Fiscal Account and negative on corporate growth.  The net overall effect is therefore positive, but much smaller than analysts have assumed so far.

Conclusion

  Projections of Global growth by multilateral institutions like the IMF and the World Bank have proved since 2010 to be overoptimistic. They have been repeatedly revised downwards, as they have been most recently for 2015 and 2016. Interestingly, the IMF projections were always a little pessimistic for India and therefore turned out closer to actuals(old GDP series) than Government’s more optimistic forecasts for 2011 to 2013. Looking forward the slow recovery projected for the USA and EU will also mean slower recovery for India’s globalized corporate sector.[i] This does not mean, Indian macro-managers can do nothing about it.
     A combination of looser monetary policy, a tighter fiscal policy with greater shift of fiscal expenditure from subsidies & consumption to infrastructure investment and a quick solution of the bankruptcy-bad loan problem can accelerate recovery of corporate investment, and accelerate overall growth.


Post Script (15/8/15)

    A series of recent developments in China have exposed the extent of growth slowdown in China, previously hidden by the careful control that the CCP exercises over information.  This means that in the short term the external environment will become more negative for India.  
    A number of reports have appeared over the past few years about empty apartment complexes and even empty cities in China. This and other indicators such as growth in electricity consumption, led several analysts (including us) to conclude that China’s actual growth was likely a per cent point below the officials numbers released by the Government i.e. around 6%. Recent developments suggest that the growth numbers, going forward, could be much lower, by about 1 to 2% below even this estimate of 6%, i.e. 4-5%.  More seriously the panic reaction revealed by the use of draconian control methods to prop up the stock market in June and the shock devaluation in August suggest that the Communist Party (CCP) may have lost its ability to manage the economy and maintain a growth rate of around 6% (a much wanted soft landing). Consequently the probability of a decline in Chinese growth rate to 4-5% (feared hard landing) has now increased to 30%, from less than 10% in May this year.
    Indian policy can minimize the adverse short term development s of Chinese hard landing by ensuring that the “Real effective exchange rate(36 country)” of the rupee does not appreciate (repeat not).  Temporary measures to control any potential dumping by Chinese firms during the next year or so would also be justified, but these must be withdrawn once the immediate threat has passed.
    In the medium-long term the reduction in profitability of investment, beginning to be revealed in the worsening profitability of foreign (FDI) firms operating in China, will also become visible in State and party controlled enterprises. With lower investible surpluses these State & party controlled firms will be forced to cut down their investment, and stop creating capacity that adds to global excess capacity in traded goods, particularly manufacturing.  Over time this will help reduce excess capacity globally and benefit India and other countries suffering from an imbalance between effective global demand and subsidized capacity creation by China.  In particular the globalized Indian corporate sector, producing standardize products such as metals and basic chemicals will benefit in the medium term.
 
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A version of this article appeared on the Editorial page of the Indian Express, under the banner, “Inside, Outside, “ on June 6th ,  2015,  http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/inside-outside-4/ .


[i] Japanese growth has much less impact on Indian growth and Chinese growth has almost no impact on Indian growth. Chinese over investment in tradeable manufacturing will however, continue to have a negative impact on Indian manufacturing, whether China grows fast or slow.