Q & A on Indian Economy

Q&A with Business Standard

Q1. The last few years has seen a shift in the composition of household savings away from financial assets. However in light of a fall in inflation which essentially translates to higher real interest rates/deposit rates, and a buoyant stock market, will we see a shift away from physical assets? if so, will this lead to an increase in bank deposits and thus impact deposit and credit rates?

A1: The Inflation expectations, sampled by the RBI still unbelievably(to me) high. If these reflect actual consumer expectations, then the shift to financial savings will only occur when they come down. On the on other hand, actual inflation is declining and if expectations follow these as has normally happened in the past, financial savings should increase with a decline in inflation. This will impact bank deposits and deposit and credit rates in the expected direction.

Q2. With the US Fed likely to phase out quantitative easing and expected to raise interest rates next year, in light of strong GDP and employment numbers, will we see any impact on capital flows to India? how will this impact the proposed disinvestment that will be unveiled over the coming months?

A2: very time there is a change in forecasts of US growth, it is accompanied by speculation about tapering of easy monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve Board and volatility in financial markets. Higher US growth combined with further tapering will lead to higher international interest rates and volatility in capital flows to emerging markets. But I believe this will be a short term phenomenon as far as its affect on India. Over any period longer than a month or so, flows to India will be determined by the soundness of our macro-economic policy and the growth enhancing (policy & institutional) reforms.

Q3. On the framework of monetary policy, we have seen how central banks in other countries are looking multiple indicators such as employment numbers, nominal gdp growth, rather than focusing solely on inflation. Do you think an inflation targeting regime will restrict RBI's room to maneuver?

A3: When the Raghu Ram Rajan Committee first raised the issue of "inflation targeting" in 2006-2007 I opposed it on the grounds that (1) Indian financial markets were highly segmented, underdeveloped & far from efficiency of US, UK markets. (2) That economic growth was still too dependent on government policy and governance actions that affected the supply side, to be treated as totally  independent of policies for inflation control and (3) We didnt have adequate predictive models for linking monetary policy instruments with future inflation, partly for the reasons 1 & 2. Since then it has been clarified by Dr. Rajan that "inflation targetting" doesn't mean that other elements such as actual and potential economic growth will be totally ignored. This "soft" version of inflation targetting can take care of the concerns that I had raised. 

Q4. The IIP data for the last few months has seen an uptick on the back of an incipient revival in manufacturing. What are your expectations going forward? do you think that the recovery in manufacturing is getting more broad based?

A4: This has been the longest bottom in the IIP in the last two decades i.e. the IIP has been at the bottom of a stretched out U. Given the unprecedented nature of this bottom, it is hazardous to make predictions with a few months of positive data. Nevertheless I believe the recovery in IIP has finally started.  However I still have doubts that the recovery will be very rapid, given the uncertainties in the global situation and the natural learning/taking charge process that a new government inevitably has.

Q5: While we are seeing an uptick in various indicators such as auto sales, why are sales of commercial vehicles lagging?

A5: The former is an indicator of reviving consumption, while the latter is linked to investment. The revival of the investment cycle was expected by informed analysts to lag that of the consumption one.

Q6: On inflation, do you think the fall is temporary or permanent, especially in light of firming up of fruits and vegetable prices? how do you think inflation will trend in the coming months?

A6: Because of the importance of seasonality in vegetables, fruits and many other agricultural commodity it is very important to look either at de-seasonalised data when talking about month to month changes (eg June 2014 to July 2014) or to look at the annual change (July 2014 over July 2013 & June 2014 over June 2013). Overall I believe that Inflation is on downward trend at this point. However the uncertainty arising from poor monsoon in certain regions and oil price spikes cannot be ignored.

Other Questions

Q1:  What is the likely effect of the anticipated taper in US Feds Monetary policy

A1: This will lead to a rise in US and global interest rates with the expected increase in Asset price adjustments. Consequently, capital flows into and out of Indian stock market and debt instruments will also be affected. However, in my judgement these effects will be short term. Medium term capital flow will be driven by expectations about the speed of recovery of Indian growth, speed of decline of inflation and economic reforms to bring these two about. Capital inflows will resume quickly if there is confidence that Indian reforms will ensure growth recovery and inflation decline.

INDIA and WTO: Distinguishing GeoPolitics From Economics

Introduction

    At the start of the Doha Round of WTO negotiations, I warned against confusing the Economics and GeoPolitics of WTO negotiations [Virmani(2003)]. I quote extensively from this note (below) because it remains relevant today, in the context of the decision of the Indian Government to make approval of the agreement of “Trade Facilitation” contingent on a commitment to revise the agreement on Food subsidies.  I conclude with an economic analysis of protection and subsidies that clarifies the economic issues and puts them in proper perspective

Geo-Politics Of Negotiations

 “Economic theory and empirical analysis as understood and accepted by academics in the USA, Europe and the emerging market economies, says that removal of controls, restrictions and obstacles to Imports will by and large lead to an increase in the welfare of both the importing and the exporting countries.  Then why is it that each country ignores what its own academics tell it with respect to policy reforms and focuses mostly on the import restrictions imposed by other countries on its export items (whether these are goods, services or factors)?  The answer is politics.  In every country, politics imposes a cost on the nation as a whole while benefiting some sub-set of individuals.  The geopolitics of negotiations is motivated by a desire to transfer some of the national costs of policy distortions onto other countries, while retaining as much of the benefits for sub-groups within the country.  A good example of this from the rich countries is the multi-fibre agreement (MFA).

One implication of this strategic approach to multilateral economic rules is that there can be an apparent dichotomy between our domestic reform intentions and actions and our public posture and negotiating stance at WTO.  Economic analysis must drive our (autonomous) reforms in the external sector irrespective of what happens (or does not happen) at WTO.  That is, liberalisation is beneficial to the country and must continue independent of the WTO and at a pace and timing of our choice.  Economic analysis also provides us with the true costs and benefits to our citizens, of specific policy changes.  This forms the basis of our evaluation of what rules we should be willing to accept in the negotiations- those resulting in policy change that have a higher benefit to us in any case.  Conversely it also determines which changes we should resist conceding (those that have higher cost).  The public position that we take at the negotiation need not however lay all this out publicly for other countries. In the tactics and strategy of negotiations, politics/geo-politics will inevitably play a substantial role.” Virmani(2003)

Trade Facilitation

“Trade facilitation is the global equivalent of the Indian mantra,  ‘red tape and bureaucracy’ in international trade (import-export) system.  Trade facilitation would directly address this problem on which there is a national consensus (with the exception of the customs bureaucracy).”

“From the perspective of politics/geo-politics therefore, it is quite rational for India to concede to others on any of the Singapore issues if and only if we gain concessions and benefits in other areas. In other words we must use these as counters to bargain for what would not be available to us otherwise.  It should be remembered however that these bargains are sometimes informal, on the sidelines of the formal negotiations or a meeting in another capital.” Virmani(2003)

WTO Negotiations on Agriculture

                “Agriculture is an area where the economic arguments of rich countries are very weak (because of high subsidies) while those of poor countries are relatively strong.  It is quite clear that many countries in the EU and to a lesser extent the USA are hostage to agriculture producers who constitute a small fraction of their population.  On our side a large proportion of the population is dependent on agriculture, lives in rural areas, is very poor and less educated and has little access to up to date and relevant knowledge.  This puts their lively hood and sometimes even their survival at risk from exogenous shocks.  Over the last few years we have also raised the import duties on a number of agricultural products above the peak rate.[1] The inter-ministerial expert group argued that in the interest of economic efficiency, these should be brought down to the peak rate, with an intermediate step of two times the peak rate.  In the meanwhile, we should carry out a thorough de-control and reform of the agriculture, agro-processing and food retail sectors (as detailed in a Planning commission working paper).[2]

As far as the WTO negotiations are concerned, however, offence is the best form of defence.  We should marshal the global NGOs to expose the hypocrisy of the rich countries vis-à-vis free trade and verbal concern for the poor (while giving subsidies to rich farmers that destroy poor agriculturists jobs).  The outcome of this will either be a stalemate (both rich and poor countries retain their preferred distortions) or less likely a trade-off relating to (one or more of) the Singapore issues.  A commitment to reduce rich country agricultural subsidies in return for a reduction in (bound) tariff rates on agricultural goods in poor countries the third but least likely possibility.” Virmani (2003)

Economics Of Food Subsidy

    In several articles during the last year I opposed the Food Security Bill on the grounds that it was barking up the wrong tree. As I showed the real problem is child malnutrition and this requires improved sanitation not more food.[i]  However, we now have the food security Act and the Govt. has to implement it as it stands, until it is amended or redirected.  If the pessimistic calculations of the fiscal critics of the Act come true, implementation will involve huge subsidies. There is a fear in the Indian bureaucracy, that unless the exiting WTO subsidy limits are changed, India could be constantly in the dock at the WTO, having to answer to Global agricultural exporters for domestic subsidies.  To put this fear in perspective, we need to understand the three aspects of Agricultural protection-subsidy:

(1)   Production Subsidies (S_f)

    Subsidies on agricultural inputs given to the farmer, such as fertilizer, electricity and water, that reduce the cost of production. If the subsidy per unit of output is S_{f  =}  s P_d  this will reduce domestic market price from P_d to P_d’ = P_d  - S_{f  =} (1-s) P_d  . The last WTO agreement on Agriculture puts a limit on production subsidies of 10% based on a three year average of prices prevailing at the time the agreement was signed (1986-88). This is clearly outdated and needs to be updated to current/recent price levels. Once this is done a 10% subsidy limit would mean that input subsidies cannot exceed 1.8% of GDP (as GDP from agriculture is about 18% of total GDP).  Current input subsidies are less than 1% of GDP.[ii] To pump even more than this amount into agriculture input subsidies instead of into enhancement of agricultural productivity, would be reflective of very bad agricultural policy.[iii] In the medium term, direct income transfers to poor farmers could eliminate even the need for this level of input subsidy.

(2)   Tariff Protection (t)

      Protection of domestic agricultural/food output through tariffs (and QRs). If the effective tariff rate is t this will mean that with World Price P_w ,  P_d’= (1+t) P_w  or P_d = (1+t) P_w  + S_f  =  [(1+t)/1-s)] P_w  . The effective tariff rates on Wheat and rice have varied between 5% and 10% in the recent past, without exceeding the latter.

     The WTO agreements on tariffs, stipulates that the “actual” tariff rate cannot be higher than the “bound tariff rates”. Even though our peak tariff rate on non-agricultural goods is 10%, the bound rates on agriculture are two to three times the bound rates on non-agriculture imports. Therefore elimination of input subsidies could be offset by raising the import tariffs to t’ = s +  t (1+s), thus keeping the degree of import protection to farmers unchanged.

(3)   Consumer subsidies (S_c)

    Consumer subsidies reduce the price of food paid by the consumer (P_c) below the market price. P_c = P_d’- S_c = (1+t) P_w  - S_c . There are no WTO limits on consumer food subsidies.  However, our consumer subsidies are provided through the FCI which also runs the price support system for farmers. Therefore it is not always clear what part of the subsidy given to FCI is compensation for its inefficiency and corruption and how much is a subsidy to consumers. 

       Further, foreign producers argue that the MSP acts as a subsidy to farmers and must be included in the production subsidy calculation, as the Govt. does not allow foreign agriculture producers to supply FCI imported agricultural produce at the MSP. Though this point is debatable, it could be another issue for putting Government in the dock at the WTO. If food subsidies were provided directly to consumers through a food debit/credit card or a bank account (instead of through FCI), the issue would not arise.

Conclusion

    The Indian Government has stated that it is willing to continue discussion on the Bali issues when the WTO meets again in September after a recess.  It seems to me that a reasonable compromise that meets the domestic political objectives of India as well as of Agricultural exporters such as the USA and Australia is possible before the end of the year given a genuine desire to reach agreement, instead of trying to scapegoat India.

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[1] See references in Planning Commission Working Paper No. 4/2002-PC (April 2002), “Towards a Competitive Economy: VAT and Customs Duty Reform,” by Arvind Virmani, for a list of items (Table 3, p 30) and tariff rates (appendix table).

[2] See Planning Commission Working Paper No. 5/2002-PC (May 2002), “Excess Food Stocks, PDS and Procurement Policy,” by Arvind Virmani and P V Rajeev.

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[i]  See articles & blogs at http://dravirmani.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_25.html and research papers at  https://sites.google.com/site/drarvindvirmani/social-welfare .

[ii] Even if highly questionable items are added from FCIs MSP operation (see below) the total agricultural subsidy is less than 10% of Agricultural GDP.

[iii] For a benchmark of good agricultural policy see,  https://sites.google.com/site/chintan1997reg/economic-policy-and-regulation/agriculture

Swach Bharat: India Needs a Sanitation and Water Policy

with Prof. Charan Singh, IIMB

Introduction

World Health Organization (WHO) released a Report on Drinking Water and Sanitation last week.   India continues to be a country with the highest number of people in the world practicing open defecation (OD) – about half of its population.  Of the one billion people practicing OD, 597 million live in India.  India’s performance is worse than that of other emerging market economies and least developed countries (LDCs).  In India 65 per cent population in rural areas (30 per cent in LDCs) and 12 per cent in urban area (6 per cent) resort to OD. And still worst, according to WHO, India is not making significant strides in reducing OD. 

In the case of drinking water, India is doing better than many other countries in the world.  But there is further scope to improve safe drinking water facilities in the country, as in rural areas, 1 per cent of population is using surface water which is considered unsafe.  

Optimal health policy requires appropriate policy for sanitation. In developed countries almost everyone has access to a private flush toilet served by a continuous supply of piped water. Human waste is channeled by separate sewerage pipes, ensuring that drinking water is separated from pathogens carried in faecal material, and taps located in close proximity, enable people to maintain personal hygiene.

Effect of Sanitation

Better sanitation helps to break the faecal-oral transmission route that impact public health and is beneficial for the household and the community.  Cross country studies show that sanitation is the strongest determinant of child survival and improvement in sanitation is accompanied by more than 30 percent reduction in child mortality according to UNDP. According to studies conducted in different countries, it is estimated that having a pit latrine in the home reduces the incidence of diahorrea by 50 percent, while having a flush toilet lowers the risk by 70 percent.  According to research in Salvador, Brazil, incidence of diahorrea was twice as high among children in households without sanitation when compared with children in household with sanitation.  Similarly, diahorrea was three times greater for children in communities without sanitation when compared with communities with proper drains and sewers. As shown earlier by Virmani (The Sudoku of Growth, Poverty and Mal-nutrition, 2007: and Under-nourishment of Children: Causes of Cross Country Variation, 2012) lack of sanitation is a major cause of malnutrition in India and across the World.   The strong externalities associated with individual and community investments in sanitation make a case for public policy and may be subsidies. 

Costs

The financial cost is very large in moving from OD to safe collection disposal and treatment of sewage effluents. In rural areas, with sparse population, costs of laying of sewerage networks are large compared to urban areas and therefore public facilities may be a viable short run option. In urban areas, problem is most acute in slums, which do not have proper sewage collection and transport systems. Further most cities do not have systems to properly process the waste before disposing it in the river or other water bodies.

Clean water, sanitation personal hygiene and good nutrition are the four foundations of good public health policy. Generally, sanitation is most neglected? The reasons could be manifold but inadequate financing and capacity constraints, especially at the level of municipalities, results in weaker national strategy.  Poverty is another barrier which results in low level of sanitation as, illustratively, a pit latrine would cost more than a monthly wage and therefore is unaffordable. Hygiene is also another predictor of public health as hands transmit pathogens to foodstuffs and directly to the mouths but is generally neglected.

Past Efforts

The government has been making efforts to improve water facility and sanitation, especially in the rural areas. To improve rural drinking water supply government has been making provisions under Bharat Nirman. The data from NSS 69^th Round (NSS69), released in December 2013, reveals that 88.5 per cent of rural households and 95.3 per cent of urban households have improved source of drinking water.  State-wise, situation was grim in Jharkhand, Manipur, Meghalaya, Odisha and Kerala.   The government has initiated the integrated low cost sanitation schemes for urban areas and total sanitation campaign of rural areas. Consequently, some improvements are recorded but still according to NSS69, 59.4 per cent of Indian households do not have toilet facilities in rural areas and 8.8 per cent in urban areas.   States with poor record are Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Bihar.

New Thrust

India has been spending around 1.3 per cent of GDP on health for which last 10 years and could consider raising the level.  The government could also consider a bigger role for local governments to achieve further progress and participation.  The key recommendations would be providing community latrines like toilet blocks, distribution of soaps, and inculcating hygienic habits starting from school children. The government could also consider subsidizing sanitation projects at the level of individuals or community. Projects like Sulabh need to be encouraged further and strengthened.   The private corporate sector can also be tapped to participate in this endeavor through resources under CSR. Only then by 2019, every household would have total sanitation as proposed in the recent Union Budget.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/39620846.cms?curpg=2&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

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A version of this article appeared in the Economic Time of August 4, 2014 under the banner, “Swach Bharat: Why India needs a Sanitation and Water Policy.”

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/swachh-bharat-why-india-needs-a-sanitation-and-water-policy/articleshow/39620846.cms

Sanitation is The Solution to Malnutrition in India

Introduction

Historically the greatest advances in longevity and mortality reduction have come not from treatment of individual disease but from public health.  This includes modern drainage and sewerage systems (sewage treatment plants), drinking water systems that produce and deliver disease free water and solid waste disposal systems. The current position is illustrated by the low proportion of the population with access to improved sanitation facilities. The impact of this neglect is reflected in two well known facts; One, ‘Delhi belly’ is infamous throughout the World and the Delhi middle class has to use water filters to protect itself from tap water borne disease. Two, India is still home to communicable and vector borne diseases that have been eliminated in most countries outside sub-Saharan Africa.

Malnutrition Facts

According to the National sample survey of 2004-5, 1.9% of Indian households defined themselves as hungry for some part of the year.  Based on the same survey, the Planning Commission determined the proportion of poor according to the then prevailing national poverty line in 2004-5 was between 21.8% and 27.5%.  Malnutrition in children under 3 years of age as measured by the National Family health survey 2005-6 (NFHS 3) was much higher.  Stunted and Underweight children constituted 38.4% and 45.9% respectively of children under 3.  The cross State correlation between poverty rates and malnutrition rates was around 0.7 (using either MRP or URP based estimates).  At least 30% of this cross-State variation in nutritional status of children was therefore totally uncorrelated with the variation of poverty rates across States. 

The improvement in the nutrition status of children has also been disappointing. Over the seven years between 1998-9 and 2005-6 malnutrition has declined by only 1.1 per cent points while stunting has declined by 7.1 per cent points.  This compares with a 4.3 per cent point decline in the poverty rate between 1999-2000 and 2004-5 (MRP). Though stunting has declined at a marginally faster annual rate (1.0%) than poverty (0.9%), the decline in percentage of underweight children is minuscule.  The implication is drawn that existing policies and programs are not making a significant dent on malnutrition and need to be improved.  To do this, however, we need to first find out what are the important factors responsible for malnutrition.

Malnutrition: Potential Causes

Mixing up issues of Hunger, average availability of food/cereals (or Calorie deficiency), poverty and malnutrition, can lead to serious diagnostic errors and ineffective policies that make little dent on these problems. Das Gupta et al (2009)[i] argued that the fact that 25% of stunted Indian children were in the highest wealth quintile reflects the burden of morbidity even among the affluent. The WHO estimated that half of malnutrition is attributable to infections arising from poor sanitation, not lack of food.

    There are three broad aspects of malnutrition that must be kept in mind when devising strategies for dealing with it. One, the ability to access such food items.  This depends on household income or ability to sustain certain levels of consumption.  The rate of Poverty (Head count ratio) is the standard indicator.  Other possible indicators could include assets such as land and housing.

      Two, household/family knowledge and information about good nutrition.  This includes knowledge about the locally available foods that are good from the nutrition perspective.  This can be based on, (a) traditional age old knowledge (old wives tales). (b) Ability to read coupled with availability of appropriate reading material on nutrition. (c) Access to media such as newspapers, radio and TV, coupled with propagation of such information on the radio (d) Special programs that directly educate mothers about child rearing and nutrition such as ICDS.

       Three the state of health.  Even if the right kind of food and nutrition is available a child may not be able to consume and/or absorb it properly due to ill health or sickness.  For instance a child suffering from diarrhea much of the time is unlikely to be able to ingest much good and healthy food and absorb the nutrition, even if it is freely available and provided to the child by the mother/parents. Historically it has been demonstrated across many countries that public health measures like clean drinking water, sanitation, sewerage, control of communicable and epidemic diseases and public health education play an important role in reducing mortality rates at every age and across gender.  In the Indian environment access to water and toilets, breast feeding (to impart immunity in an unhealthy environment), access to sound health advice/treatment, prevalence of vaccination and availability of vitamin supplements are possible indicators.

Malnutrition Across States

Virmani (2007)[ii] analysis showed that household access to toilets, breast feeding of infants and vaccination of children have a significant effect in reducing child malnutrition.  These variables explained 85% of the cross-State variation in malnutrition. Nutrition variables were either not significant or had the opposite of the expected effect, indicating problems with the programs.  Expenditure on the Integrated Child Development program (ICDS) appeared to have an uncertain effect, probably because it was effective in some states and not effective in others.

Virmani (2007)[iii] concluded that the most important determinant of the variation of malnutrition across India States was public health deficiencies as measured by access to improved  sanitation and drinking water.  That is, the weakening of the absorptive capacity of the stomach due to gastrointestinal diseases and germs played a much more significant role in malnutrition than the availability of cereals which are the focus of the PDS system and ‘right to food’ advocates.  The paper also suggested that basic public health information, nutritional knowledge and availability about nutritional foods may also play a role.

Dean Spears and Lamba (2013),[iv] village level study in India, showed the negative effect of open defecation on child stunting and wasting, thus confirming the importance of Household access to toilets on the nutrition status of children. Jeffery Hammer et al have carried out micro-experiments that confirm these findings for the high income city of Delhi.

Malnutrition: India In World

India is an outlier in terms of malnutrition in cross-country plots of malnutrition against per capita GDP.  Correspondingly India is way significantly worse than countries at its level of per capita GDP in terms of household access to toilets. It is however close to the trend line with respect to access to improved drinking water sources.  Inadequacy of public health measures, results in prevalence of gastro-intestinal infections (even if they do not manifest themselves in a visible disease or ill health), that inhibit the absorption and use of food in the body. Even if enough food is available, the child may not be able to ingest or absorb it properly, resulting in under-nutrition.

Virmani (2012)[v] analyzed cross-country variation in child malnutrition. The quality of public health, as measured by variables such as access to better sanitation and improved water sources, is an important factor in explaining cross-country variations in the prevalence of malnutrition and inter-state variations across India. It also confirms the importance of primary education, particularly of females, in helping spread information and knowledge about personal hygiene, sanitation and nutrition.  Much more could however be done through appropriate school curricula and media campaigns to promote public health education.

The analysis suggests that poverty is not an independent cause of malnutrition, but may provide an additional explanation only to the extent that it is over & above that of unsanitary living conditions.  The proportion of adults having primary education also tends to reduce malnutrition, probably by increasing understanding of the effect of unsanitary conditions.  The primary completion rates for females is however, more significant than for both male and female together, suggesting the relatively greater importance of female literacy. This is because females play a greater role in creating and maintaining a clean home environment than males.

Conclusion: Sanitation

A toilet is not just a room with a hole in it. The toilet has to be backed by or connected to, a system for collecting and hygienically disposing of human excretions, so that they don’t contaminate the water supply or the environment our children play and study in and we all live and work in.  Effective systems of sanitation in our urban and rural areas, by cleaning up the environment in which harmful germs and bacteria thrive, can have a major effect on malnutrition and disease.  Public education campaigns that increase understanding of this hidden menace (invisible to many) can accelerate the process. The improvement in cleanliness and sanitation as envisaged by the Government’s “Swach Bharat” program, can eliminate most of the difference in malnutrition (stunting, wasting) between India and the rest of the World and across Indian States. The increased subsidies envisaged under the Food Security Act would reduce malnutrition more effectively if spent on toilets, sewers, sewage disposal and garbage processing.

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[i]  Das Gupta, Monica, Rajendra Shukla, T.V. Somanathan, and K.K Datta, 2009. “How Might India’s Public Health Systems be Strengthened?”, Washington DC: The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5140.

[ii]  Virmani, Arvind, “The Sudoku of Growth, Poverty and Malnutrition: Lessons For Lagging States,” Working Paper No. 2/2007-PC, Planning Commission, July 2007.

 http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/rpwpf.htm

[iii] Op cit and “Causes of Child Malnutrition In India,” Working Paper No. WsWp 1/2007,  July 2007.   MalnutritionChild07July.docx at https://sites.google.com/site/drarvindvirmani/working-papers

[iv]  Spears, Dean and Sneh Lamba, “Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Sanitation on Childhood Cognitive Skills: Evidence from India’s Total Sanitation Campaign”, Policy research Working Paper, 6659, World Bank, October 2013.

[v]  Virmani, Arvind, "Under-nurishment of Children: Causes of Cross-country Variation," Working paper  No.WsWp 4/2012, October 2012 [ Nutrition12oct.docx at  https://sites.google.com/site/drarvindvirmani/].

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      A version of this article appeared in The Hindu on July 28, 2014 under the banner, “Investing in Health Through Hygiene.”  http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/investing-in-health-through-hygiene/article6255543.ece