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Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Sudoku of India's Economic Growth

In the Sudoku (2009) I showed how India's 1990s economic reforms raised the underlying/potential growth rate of the Indian economy to a rnage of 8.5 to 9.0. I also said that this growth could (not would) be maintained for several decades provided economic reforms continued at the average rate seen since 1991.    The analysis of high growth economies has shown that numerous countries attaned high growth for 3 to 5 years (shooting stars) but only a handfull have been able to sustain it for two decades (HGEs).  These (HGEs) were countries that reacted quickly to adverse developments and shocks to the economy, by removing impediments to growth and stimulating new drivers to take the place of declining ones.  Thus there was a great danger of complacency  (Eco Survey 2008-9) and inaction on the policy front that would result in  a slowing down of India's growth below its potential. Unfortunately this what seems to have happened, with a resultant slowdown in growth below 8% and likely hood of further slowdown, unless policy reforms resume.  Despite the highly unfavourable global situation, I still believe that policy reforms, several of which have been on the table, can reverse the decline and put the economy back on the high growth path.

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