This article appeared in TOI, 18/4/13.
In an earlier note I had forecast that the
2014 election campaign would be fought between a Rahul led Congress and a Modi
led BJP. Rahul Gandhi’s speech has given
us the first hint of the Rahul-Congress election platform and strategy. The
election platform is basically the congress development strategy of “Inclusive
growth” developed over the last 8 years, modified/tweaked by the need to
restore growth to its 8% potential and leavened with Shri Rahul Gandhi’s
personal experience of reaching out to the common people and reviving the
Congress party. By leaving the issue of a post-election Congress PM open, the
strategy is also designed to keep the election from becoming a Presidential style
Rahul vs. Modi election. Similarly,
Narendra Modi’s speeches and the reaction of the JD(U) and other potential NDA
partners to his rise is also giving us a picture of the election platform of
the Modi led BJP: (i) Faster economic growth & job creation, (ii) Better
Public Goods & Services, (iii) More focused and better governance, (iv)
Public Security. At the same time Hindutva
issues are likely to be downplayed in an effort to pacify the JDU and other
potential NDA partners, and more emphasis on the inclusive programs of BJP
governments in M.P., Chhattisgarh etc.
Consider a grading based on the each
parties program (Cong/BJP) and the ability of the potential leader (Rahul/Modi)
to achieve results (positive & negative).
Three dimensions are likely to figure in the election discourse: Social inclusion, Economic Growth &
Development and Domestic & National security (plus a net/overall
grade). Putting oneself into the
hypothetical persona of neutral analyst with a nationalist, liberal
perspective, the tentative scores for the two national parties are, (i) Rahul
led Congress: A, B+ and B on the three dimensions with a net score of B+ and (ii) Modi led BJP: C+, A and A- with a
net of B+. Any ranking can be disputed
by committed supporters, particularly as it relates to likely future
performance. Our purpose is however the very limited one of analyzing potential
election strategies. Two points emerge
from this exercise: One that on basis of net score it may be difficult for
voters to choose between the two National parties, so traditional supporters of
each are likely to vote for their historically favored party, even if they had
drifted away in the last two elections. Two that new, independent, undecided voters
are likely to vote for the party whose score is higher on the dimension that is
more important to them. Those who care
very strongly about social liberalism are likely to gravitate to the Rahul
Congress, while those who care strongly about liberal economic policy outcomes
are likely to drift to the BJP. Those
who care more about caste and region, will likely vote for the State parties. On balance the urban vote is likely to shift
back from Congress to BJP, while the rural vote share of the Congress could
increase to partially offset this. The
challenge for both parties will be to win back the younger, more mobile voters
from among those whose families switched to the State parties during the last
10-15 years.
The
National party which gets significantly higher number of seats along with its
limited pre-election partners will have a better chance of forming the
government. Analysts have said that an ambiguous result will favor the
Congress, given that parties like JD(U), BJD and TDP may not join a government
with Modi as PM. At this point, analysis suggests four
potential outcomes: (a) Clear win for Congress – Rahul Gandhi becomes PM, (b)
Clear win for BJP – Narendra Modi becomes PM, (c) Uncertain win for Congress
with UPA III the largest pre-pol group. Rahul takes over party president ship
and names a non-political PM, (d) Uncertain win for BJP, with NDA- the largest
pre-pol group. L. K. Advani becomes PM,
with Narendra Modi as DPM (Economy) and Nitish Kumar as DPM (social
inclusion). One may well question how L
K Advani of Yath Yatra fame could be an acceptable compromise. The most important reason is he was almost
drummed out of the BJP by the RSS for his positive remarks about Jinnah while
on a visit to Pakistan and has therefore in a sense paid his dues to the JD(U)
secularists. Despite this he may be preferred by the RSS (to “dictatorial”
NaMo), as also by the next-gen BJP leaders, who can keep their leadership hopes
alive.
Does this new post-election scenario,
require new thinking on the part of the Rahul Congress? For one it requires a complete extirpation of
any residual complacency in the Congress with respect to economic reforms and
economic growth. The government, fully
and whole heartedly supported by the party, must get down in the trenches to
carry out every possible governance and economic reform that can revive
economic growth within the next twelve months(this will benefit whoever comes to power). The achievements of Narendra
Modi in sustaining growth in a relatively high per capita income State can only
be countered by restoring national growth to reasonable levels. It also requires some re-balancing of “social
inclusiveness” away from Rawlsian abstractions, approved by Nobel prize winning
philosophers towards more practical maximization of benefit-cost ratios and a
greater focus on the issue of law and order and public safety & security.
This article appeared on the editorial page of the Times of India, on April 18, 2013: Can be accessed at,
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