A recent Policy paper (WsPP 4/2015) analyses the changes in foreign policy under
PM Modi’s government. Here are some excerpts from this paper giving a flavor of
the issues and arguments [i] :
The most fundamental change in
Foreign policy, is the one referred to in October
2014 as “India First.” [ii] The
choice of words was perhaps not the most diplomatic, but the implications
remain the same and are amply supported by subsequent developments. One of the achievements of the previous NSA
was to bring out a foreign policy paper titled “Non-alignment 2.0” i.e. the 21st
century version of the post War (WW II) foreign policy of “non-alignment”
between the two poles of that time, USA and USSR. By definition, Non-alignment starts with a
definition of the “poles” or countries and their policies, between which one is
non-aligned. “India first” turns this
approach on its head, by defining India itself as one of the poles, with a
clear set of domestic and international objectives and expectations from other
countries. Instead of looking first at
what other country’s objectives and expectations are, and weaving our way through the contradictory
objectives of other poles, we as a fixed pole, first define our own objectives
and our expectations from other countries, including the “poles.” We then try
to convince them to support our objectives, making whatever bargains necessary
for achieving these objectives.
An essential element of this changed
perspective, is the new government’s “pragmatic actions and ‘view of the
world,’ ” Therefore there has been a
search for deals with every pole to further India’s “primary objective of closing the economic and
technological gap and building national power, in a pragmatic forward looking
manner jettisoning ideological blinkers and minimizing historical
baggage(Oct2014).” This is neither
‘non-alignment 3.0’ nor ‘multi-alignment’, but the first step in the
“Multipolar transition to a Tri-polar world” in which India will be one of the
three leading poles by 2020, albeit the weakest of the three.[iii] India in 2013 ranked third behind USA and
China in terms of size of GDP at PPP and tenth behind Russia (9th)
in terms of current dollar GDP. Its economic power, as measured by the VIPP
index of potential power, was six.[iv]
Author’s projections indicate that India’s rank will rise to number three by
2020. The Modi government’s aspirations of India becoming a ‘leading power’ not
just a ‘balancing power,’” as outlined by the foreign secretary, reveals an
appreciation of the emerging possibilities.
Some analysts have called India’s new foreign policy approach as
‘multi-alignment.” But this is a misnomer, because India is not aligning either
with the sole super power USA or with the fast rising great power China, nor
with the Great powers of the past (Japan, Germany, Russia, France, UK). It’s a “multipolar transition” because the
relative position of these powers, with different strengths and weakness, is
undergoing rapid change. India is on the
way to equaling and/or excelling them in certain dimensions, while still being
in a position to benefit from their historical strengths. This uncertain world, with the old
equilibrium slowly crumbling, but a new one could take two decades to emerge,
can be characterized as a multipolar transition.
In October 2014, there were five areas in which I saw an emerging change in foreign policy: "The centrality of economic & technological development, the integration of domestic and foreign policy with respect to this objective, the emphasis on “national power” including “military power” and “Soft power” and a reduction in self-imposed constraints on actions that third counties may construe as inimical to their interests.”[v] These changes are now clearly underway.
The policy paper argues that, (a) Relations with USA have taken a decisive
strategic upswing, but could grow even faster if the USA understood India’s
limitations of low per capita income and high poverty and acted with more generosity,
given these limitations. (b) That India is moving towards a policy of “symmetry”
viz China, and (c) India is adopting a two pronged strategy toward Pakistan, based
on a hard headed understanding of the deep state and its actions. Further details can be seen in the policy paper
(WsPP 4/2015).
“The PM Modi led Indian government is changing the emphasis of India’s
Foreign and National security policies. Elements of this change in approach are
already visible. These involve a clearer definition of Indian interests (“India
First”) in terms of economic and technological development, a greater focus on
these goals in foreign policy and a consequent integration of domestic and
foreign policies. Other changes involve a greater focus on the development of
national power, in particular an enhancement of the somewhat neglected element
of military power, its broader definition to include asymmetric warfare of
which State financed-directed non-state actors are a dangerous part, and a
jettisoning of self-imposed constraints of ideology and misplaced fear of
offending other countries who display no such squeamishness in their
behavior. Overall a much more
confident, credible and effective national security-foreign policy is predicted
to emerge over the next five years.” [vi]
These have been rapidly operationalized
over the year.
A philosophical under pining cum broader direction for India’s new
foreign policy is also emerging. This is
implicit in the government’s formulation of India going from being a “balancing
power to a “leading power.” The
government plans to pursue a policy that accelerates the development of India
to the position of the third most powerful economy in the World. It will also
attempt to raise India’s rank in
strategic-military power, an effort that is more difficult, time
consuming and costly, and therefore can benefit greatly from help from super power
USA and other historical Great powers like Russia, France, UK, Japan and
Germany.[vii]
[i] Virmani, Arvind, “Foreign
Policy Under PM Modi”, Policy Paper No. 4/2015, New Delhi, May 2015. https://sites.google.com/site/drarvindvirmani/policy-papers
[ii]
“Foreign Policy under Modi: http://dravirmani.blogspot.in/2014/10/indian-foreign-policy-under-modi.html
[iii] Virmani, Arvind, "A Tripolar Century: USA,
China and India," Working Paper No. 160, ICRIER, March, 2005. http://www.icrier.org/page.asp?MenuID=24&SubCatId=175&SubSubCatId=233. And other papers at https://sites.google.com/site/drarvindvirmani/india-great-power .
[iv]
See for instance, Virmani, Arvind, "Fall and Rise of India", Working
paper No. WsWp 1/2013, October 2013. https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkcmFydmluZHZpcm1hbml8Z3g6M2E0ZTNiNmVhYjA3MTM1Mw
and other papers at https://sites.google.com/site/drarvindvirmani/india-great-power .
[v] Foot
note 1 op cit.
[vi] Foot
note 1 op cit.
[vii]
For details see policy paper at https://sites.google.com/site/drarvindvirmani/policy-papers
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