Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Financial Inclusion: Bank Account (Jan Dhan), Mobile Wallet or Social Credit Card?




Introduction

    There are three ways to increase financial inclusion (of less well of citizens): (1) Open a bank account with or without an associated debit card. (2) A cell phone based payment system with deposit facility (mobile wallet + banking) and (3) A credit card with no charges to holder and very low charges to payee (Social Credit Card). These three ways are not mutually exclusive. They can be used alone or in any combination.  If combined with a UID number for authentication & elimination of duplicates,[i] all are capable of use by government to make cash transfer directly to recipients(DCT/DBT), minimizing leakage and ensuring that every needy person gets his/her entitlement.  The key issues are (a) how quickly they can be made universal, and (b) how easy they are for the poorest to use.

Bank Act, Rupay Debit card

  Surveys suggest that 47 to 57% of the people have a bank account. Surveys of potential account holders show that poor and lower middle class people find it too intimidating to open a bank account.  One of the major justifications for Bank nationalization in 1969 was to bring such people into the formal financial system and reduce or eliminate their dependence on informal sources and money lenders.  Forty five years later at least 40% of the public still doesn’t  have a bank account. This reflects very poorly on “Nationalization” and the Nationalized banking system. Universalization of banking therefore remains a very difficult task.
The “Jan Dhan” Yojna aims to provide a Debit card, RuPay, along with a bank account. This is a novel idea in the context of financial inclusion.  The debit card will also have Rs 1 lakh of insurance bundled into it. The debit card will make the use of any money deposited in the bank account, and the overdraft facility associated with it easier, therefore providing an incentive to those who hesitate to use banks, even if they have a bank account. Deposits & repayment would still require a trip to the bank or interface with a banking correspondent, who has also been provided some incentives to enroll members. Once the bank account is seeded with UID/Aadhar  and government starts transferring funds directly into it as cash transfers or direct benefits, the account holder can use the RuPay without ever going to the Bank branch. 

Mobile Wallet, Mobile Banking

    Mobile company records suggest that 80% of the public already has a pre or post paid mobile phone. Projections suggest that over the next 5 years this will rise to 90% and in 10 years become close to universal.  Even the poorest person knows how to operate a pre-paid mobile phone that has a pre-paid deposit of money in the mobile account with the phone Company. The phone companies can easily convert these mobile accounts into a mobile wallet that can be used to pay for the purchase of any good or service by transferring funds to the sellers mobile account. The phone account could also be used to provide some simple banking services.[ii] This would the least cost method of achieving universal inclusiveness.
Unfortunately RBI regulations do not permit Mobile companies to use it as a universal wallet or to use to provide deposit-credit facilities.  RBI’s argue that this would put the stability of the payments and credit system at risk. In my view a carefully constructed and limited system can achieve complete inclusiveness, in a shorter time frame than either of the two alternatives, with only a marginal impact on the stability of the overall system.

Social Credit Card

       The third method of attaining universalization is to create and issue “RuCredit Card” analogous to the RuPay card.  Each person’s card would have a credit limit appropriate to him/her. There is no need to open a bank account, as the credit card acts as an account.  If government benefit transfers can be synchronized with the due dates of credit repayments, the credit card becomes a Social credit card with a credit limit linked to the benefits transferred. The recipient can then use the Social credit card like any other credit card to buy goods and services.    Insurance can also be bundled into the card.

Conclusion

     Any of three methods can be used to achieve universal financial inclusiveness, alone or in combination.  However, the genuine mobile payment & banking solution, if permitted by RBI regulations, is likely to be more effective and less costly to the provider, and achieve greater satisfaction levels for the low income user. The “Jan Dhan” Yojna has tried to build in incentives for all participants (bank employees, correspondents, unbanked public). Its public launch involved the PM and his ministers, demonstrating his personal commitment and the importance attached to it by the government.  There is also a hint of regulatory easing with respect to use of mobiles for payments.  If the “Jan Dhan” Yojna achieves its enrolment & usage targets, it would be a feather in the government’s cap.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Where is Indian Economy Headed?(as of 25/8/14)



Q & A with Kartik Goyal of Bloomberg

Q1: How do you assess India's current economic situation? With CPI inflation still holding uncomfortably high and growth still near a decade low?
A1: The recovery is firming up and we are on track for a 1% point step up in the GDP growth rate, that I predicted on New Years eve. Inflation is also on a clear but gradual downtrend, though some upticks can arise from the poor monsoon.
Q2: What's your outlook on the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates and its impact on India? How well prepared India is to face that and What can it do more to shield itself from the impact of higher US rates?
A2: As I expect US recovery to be a gradual one, my expectation of the Feds monetary policy is a gradual winding down of QE and a corresponding rise in interest rates. There will be some negative effect on capital inflows into India, but I expect this to be temporary and short lived.

Q3: Do you think the RBI's current stance, of maintaining high interest rates even as inflation has come down a bit and the rupee is stable, is aimed at protecting the rupee when the US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates?
A3: No. The RBIs stance is clearly directed at inflation expectations. In my personal view the inflation expectations as measured by the available survey are a very poor substitute for the inflation expectation expectations that would be reflected in a well functioning market for inflation indexed bonds. In my view the former are way out of line. Any RBI action to reduce rupee volatility will occour at the time of instability.

Q4: How do you see the current monsoon deficit and its impact on inflation? And, how will monsoon, high CPI inflation will impact the RBI's monetary policy and the currency policy?
A4: Any impact of weak monsoon on cereals can easily be managed by the massive stocks with FCI. However, there is a possibility of some regional crop losses and a spike in thier prices. This will merely slow the decline in inflation without breaching the 8% CPI inflation target.

Q5: Do you think that the RBI is done with the rate tightening cycle? and the future moves will be towards easing the rates? What do you think will guide the RBI's monetary policy stance?
A5: Depends on inflation expectations and actual inflation projections.

Q6: What's your outlook for the economic growth? Do you have growth estimate for Fy15 and Fy16? How do you think the recent election mandate will impact the economic growth in the coming years?
A6: In my comments on Mr Jaitlely's first budget, I had reiterated that GDP growth in 2014-15 would accelerate by 1 per cent from last year (i.e 5.6-5.7%) and could go up another per cent point in 2015-16(ie 6.5 - 6.7%) if the policy actions hinted at in the budget fructify

Q7: What's your outlook for the rupee? Where do you see the rupee by the end of December? Do you see it touching 70 against the dollar? Or it gaining or remaining stable and why?
Q8: What do you think are the biggest risks to the rupee? Do you think the Indian rupee is overvalued given inflation differentials with other rnations? What are the risks to the rupee if the US Fed starts raising rates?
Q9: What's your view on the RBI's currency policy? And what it can do more to shield the rupee?

A7-9: The rupee is currently fairly valued at around R60/$. I expect the rupee to remain within a band of +/- Rs 2/$  of this.

 
Q10: Dr Rajan in his speeches talked about how the world is heading towards another crisis as the different central banks move in different directions to protect their economies. What's your view on that? And, what can India do to protect itself from the global monetary policy breakdown?
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A10:  I am not sure I agree with the timing of his remarks, so I don't think there is an immediate danger to India. But in several speeches in the IMF board in 2011-2012 I had warned about a Japanese style "lost decade for the Euro Area/EU" and a slow recovery for the US given the policy mistakes they made in 2009-2010 (to which I had been drawing attention since 2010 during their article IV discusssions).

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Sunday, August 24, 2014

"Neo-liberals,” "Neo-leftists" and Intelectual vested interests



Introduction

       In an article in this paper (Indian Express, August 22, 2014) Prof Ashutosh Varshney of Brown University asserts:  “It is Amartya Sen, the nemesis of neo-liberals, who would emphasize toilets as much as growth.”  This is perhaps a true perception in the exalted World of Western Academia and among the many academic followers of Prof Sen in India. However what happens in the trenches of Yojna Bhavan, North and South block where many of these and related issues were decided is starkly different. It is the followers (neo-communist/neo left?) of Prof Sen who emphasized increased “private health spending” on middle class diseases over “public health” spending on sewers and sanitation. It is the “neo-leftists” who emphasized “right to food” as a means of eliminating malnutrition as against, sewers sanitation and toilets, that “market liberal” like me showed was the main cause of child malnutrition.[i] It is these neo-leftists who emphasized doubling and tripling the money allocated (inputs) on standard inefficient, corrupt, leaking food, education and health programs (mostly States subjects), ignoring or downplaying arguments on the vital need to achieve better outcomes/results by first improving their effectiveness by addressing governance issues(including that of corruption).

Market Liberal Analysis

  A Planning Commission paper Virmani (2006)[ii] analysed poverty, hunger, education and health indicators (in a comparative framework) and their linkage to government policy and programs and argued that, “The broad theme that emerges is that the failures on this front, apart from the indirect effects of growth, are linked directly to the failure of governance.   This failure has many dimensions; the misallocation of government resources, the failure to follow norms of social benefit-cost analysis that were the reason-de-tar for the introduction of national planning, the neglect of public and quasi-public goods that are the most fundamental justification for the existence of government and a gradual (over decades) but progressive deterioration in the quality of governance. This conclusion differs radically from the conventional wisdom (national and international) about India’s poverty, social indicators and income distribution.  Even if treated as a hypothesis it merits debate and further analysis.” 

The paper concluded that, “It can be argued that the ideal (most efficient) social welfare policy is a direct transfer of income to the poor through a negative income tax.  In a developed country this would be very easy.  How can we transfer these amounts directly to the poor, the needy and the disadvantaged in a poor country?  The answer, by setting up an Indian version using a modern smart card system that delivers cash and/or subsidies to the poor based on their entitlements as per specified parameters and norms.  Such a smart card could be programmed with identity (photo & biometric fingerprint), and have information on social (SC/ST) and personal/household characteristics.  Each person/ households’ entitlements could be in the form of specified subsidies for the purchase of each of a set of items.  The set of items could include food/cereals, kerosene, midday meals, nutrition supplements, drinking water, toilet/ sanitation services, basic drugs, schooling (primary/secondary), internet access, electricity and a host of other items reflecting the dozens of subsidies and programs currently in existence.  The entitlement could be varied with and dependent on various economic and social handicaps such as SC-ST, age (infant or aged), mental handicap, physical disability, female head of household, lactating mother, chronic illness.   In this way all the current stakeholders, special interest groups and social policies could be accommodated within a single integrated system.”



“Figure .. shows clearly that the access of our population to sanitation services is much worse than is to be expected at our level of per capita GDP.  Further 89% of the countries for which data is available perform better on this indicator than India.  This is rank is worse than our rank on the mortality indicators and life expectancy indicators”
 
“Where we have failed as a nation is in improving our basic social indicators like literacy and mortality rates.  Much of the failure is a legacy of the three decades of Indian socialism (till 1979-80).  The rate of improvement of most indicators has accelerated during the market period (starting 1980-81).  The gap between our level and that of global benchmarks is still wide and our global ranking on most of these social parameters remains very poor.  This is the result of government failure. Government overstretch, misplaced priorities and deteriorating quality (corruption) has resulted in a failure to fulfil the traditional, accepted functions of government like public safety & security, universal literacy and primary education, public health education (superstition & quackery), provision of drinkable water, sanitation drains & sewage facilities, public health (infectious & epidemic diseases), building roads and creating & disseminating  agricultural technology.  Consequently the improvement in social indicators has not kept pace with economic growth and poverty decline and has led to increasing interstate disparities in growth and poverty.”

Neo-leftist Sabotage

    A presentation of this paper to Planning Commission Members and their Advisors was scheduled and cancelled several times because of the unavailability of ‘certain’ Planning commission members and never took place because of their active discouragement. Apparently the neo-leftists thought it was too dangerous to even present the comparative data on hunger, health & education, or discuss the conclusions reached.
The idea of “eliminating” poverty was perhaps too explosive for the “neo-leftists” and “neo-communists” who were comfortable with “alleviating” poverty for another half century. Even the fact that “sanitation” was a more important problem in India than general health, education, hunger and poverty was too dirty a thought for the “Brahmins of  Poverty”.  Not surprisingly, the analysis and recommendations relating to sanitation and malnutrition the next year, were similarly ignored.[iii]

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A version of this article was published in the Indian Express of August 25, 2014, under the banner, “Wrong End of The Right Debate: The Neo-Liberals emphasise Sanitation, Sewers and Toilets, not neo-communists,” http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-wrong-end-of-the-right-debate/


[i] Arvind Virmani, “The Sudoku of Growth, Poverty and Malnutrition: Lessons For Lagging States,” Working Paper No. 2/2007-PC, Planning Commission, July  2007
[ii] Arvind Virmani, “Poverty And Hunger In India: What is needed To Eliminate Them,” Working Paper No. 1/2006-PC, Planning Commission, February 2006
[iii] Virmani (2007) op cit,  fn i