Saturday, June 18, 2016

India's National Security Doctrine: An Approach

National Objective: Public Welfare


  •          Sustained fast growth of economy and economic/employment opportunities  for all citizens
o   Supply of Public Goods & Services to all citizens, through commensurate, non-inflationary increase in revenues
o   To promote and enhance Equality of Opportunity for all citizens
o   Growth Target: Close the Per Capita GDP (welfare) gap with China within 30 years.

Social equality & Diversity

  •          Strengthen & enforce constitutional principles of equality of all citizens (equal rights & responsibilities) under the constitution and the law.

Personal & Internal Security

  •          Strengthen Rule of Law and ensure its effective implementation through institutional reform so as to,
o   Provide safety and security to all law abiding citizens through effective, unbiased  investigation, trial and punishment of law breakers.
o   Internal security: Treat Terrorists, anarchists and secessionists as a priority for national law enforcement

National Security: Peace Through Deterrence

  •          A peaceful India and a peaceful neighborhood (continental and maritime) is essential for achieving national objectives, given the multiple and diverse threats India has faced and given new and emerging threats (in the Indian Ocean and West Asia)
  •          Our basic approach must be "Peace Through Deterrence" of Nuclear blackmail, Conventional War and Asymmetric/unconventional Aggression (such as cross-border Terrorism and Cyber warfare).
o   Deterrence must be based on an Integrated view of our immediate (Indian sub-continent and Indian Ocean region) and Asian neighborhood (South East,  West and Central Asia), but with a realistic view of the circles of deterrence, based on both the potential and capabilities.  Our involvement will therefore range from deep & active in the immediate circle (Indian sub-continent + Bay of Bengal + Arabian Sea + Indian Ocean & its islands), to collaborative in the middle circle (ASEAN & African continental littoral of IOR) to a presence in support of partners in the outer circle(West Asia, Central Asia, Pacific, East Asia).
o   A reorganization and reform of the higher defense management structure to meet the requirements of 21st century war fighting. A reorientation & enhancement of our naval capabilities and an extension of the reach of our missile, air and space capabilities is essential.
o   Full spectrum deterrence requires development of an Asymmetric Defense Doctrine (ADD) and an integrated strategy (ADS) for deterring Cross border terrorism in all its dimensions. Recognizing the potential of Terrorism and Cyber crime as instruments of coercion, cold war aggression and conventional war. Actionable intelligence is critical  to success of ADS and we must broaden the range and quality of intelligence.

International Opportunity & Diplomacy

  •          The challenge of raising per capita income (welfare) rapidly and deterring all forms of war and aggression against India can be met if international economic and political relations are used to complement domestic efforts.
  •          A flow of technology (FDI) & risk capital and free trade in goods and services is essential for rapid growth of the economy. In a market economy, economic growth and general technological development go hand in hand, so the private sectors of high income economies have the greatest potential to contribute to our economic & general technological growth. Thus (in ~ order) USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Korea, Canada, Spain & Australia can play an important role in this effort.  Good economic relations with these countries and the EU are important for achieving these flows and minimizing the negative effects of rent seeking monopolies in these countries, which use their political system against us.
  •          Strategic (including Defense) technologies are essential for effective deterrence. These are developed under the agies of government and are controlled (monopolized) by them. Thus the degree of strategic understanding and overlap with a country determines the level & extent of strategic technologies and weapons they are willing to share with another country. Ranked by strategic technological capability the countries are (in order) USA, Russia, China, France, Japan, UK, Germany & Italy. However the gap between 1st & 2nd ranked countries (USA & Russia) in this area is over 6:1 and thus has the greatest potential for contributing to India's strategic capabilities.
  •          USA is a country with which we have the maximum potential strategic overlap in the Indian Ocean and South East Asia (Indo-Pacific). This must be developed into policies for mutual benefit and enhanced deterrence to aggression against us.  As France, Japan, UK, Germany & Italy are allies of the USA, enhanced US-India strategic understanding, facilitates strategic understanding with most US allies & increases the potential range and quality of strategic weapons and technology available from them. Russia's importance to us lies in its position as a completely independent supplier of strategic technology with competitive strength in areas in which US technology is not available or comes at too high a cost. On the other hand, China's proliferation of strategic (nuclear and missile technologies) to hostile countries is an important factor in our calculus of deterrence.
  •          The challenge of deterring cross-border terrorism requires global co-operation, including with West Asia and the European Union. Diplomacy has to focus on this element as well as on elimination of impediments to acquisition of strategic technology, reforming global governance institutions and clubs to give India a role commensurate with its economic power.
  •          Peace and security in the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean region (land & maritime) will be facilitated by
o   Accelerated economic growth through enhanced connectivity (hard and soft infrastructure) and economic integration (trade, transit, investment).
o   Development of institutions for promotion of equal human rights for all, tolerance of diversity and reform of institutions/organizations (including schools, college) that promote hatred, violence and killing of "others". India's civilizational cultural links and millennial multi-religious history can contribute to & strengthen this endeavor. 
     With a determined pursuit of these initiatives and reforms, we should be able to achieve the objective of raising welfare in an environment of peace and tranquility in both our neighborhood and our near abroad (figures below).

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