Wednesday, June 9, 2021

State of recovery from covid second wave by State

 In the research paper titled , India's COVID 19 second wave ( ) we estimated a dual S-curve model based on data up to May 9, 2021. In this note we take stock of the recovery from second COVID wave, by different states. This is based on data up to June 3, 2021. Consequently anticipated recovery after June 3, 2021 is based on the forecasts of the dual S-curve model. Recovery is defined in terms of rate of growth of cases. When the rate of growth of total confirmed cases, declines to the lowest rate seen at the end of the first wave, before the second wave began. The date on which this happens is defined as the recovery date for the State.

Table shows the recovery dates as defined above, and the rates of  growth of active cases (all negative)and of confirmed total cases (all positive). These are also plotted in figure with States' recovery date, with earliest on the left and later ones on right, Delhi, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat and Maharashtra are expected to be the first to recover from the second wave (during June), as per our definition.  Assam, West Bengal, Uttarakhand and Andhra Pradesh will be among the last to recover in July  2021(table, figure).Kerala is a an anomalous state in which the first wave hadn't really ended before the second wave started. So the second wave will not really have ended on 18th June as projected.

 Table : Projected recovery dates & actual growth rates of total & active casses on 3rd June 2021


 Figure 1: States ordered by recovery date



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