Saturday, December 19, 2015

Indian Economy at Mid-year 2015-16: Some Observations



Economic Growth

Q1:  The Mid-year analysis of the CEA, lowered economic  growth projections  sharply from 8.1-8.5 per cent for 2015-16. Don't you think  it  is  too  pessimistic a  projection since  the  UPA had left  growth at  7.9 per cent  for 2013-14? Even  upper band  is a tad  higher than 7.3 per cent recorded last  year.
A1:  At the end of 2014-15, most macro-forecasters(public & private) had predicted a GDP growth rate of over 8% for 2015-16 with a steady growth in the first half and a stronger pick up in the second half of the year.  Since then they have reduced their forecasts of GDP growth in 2015-16 to below 7.5%.
     I retain my post-budget forecast of a 0.25% to 0.75% acceleration in GDP growth in 2015-16 over previous year. Given that GDP growth rate was 7.3% in 2014-15, my  expectation remains of a growth rate between 7.5% and 8%, though current data suggests it will be on the lower side. On the positive side is the recovery of IIP manufacturing growth from negative growth at end 2013-14 to a growth rate of 4.5% to 5.5% at present. This is underpinned by a strong recovery in both capital goods and consumer durable goods production.  The two back to back droughts in 20014-5 and 2015-6 have however taken a greater than anticipated toll on demand for consumer durables produced by the organized sector represented in the IIP. A decent Rabi crop should help revive rural incomes and demand for non-durables consumer goods. This will, however, need to be re-evaluated as more data comes in January.
Q2: It said private investment may remain weak next financial year as well. What is your view?
A2: Assuming that all the financial sector reform measures outlined in the budget (eg bankruptcy law) and elsewhere, are implemented I expect a steady but slow recovery of corporate demand, investment and growth during 2016-17. This would be stronger if the right choice is made in the fiscal-monetary balance as suggested above. There is nothing in the data so far to suggest a very sharp pick up in private investment in 2016-17.

World Economy

Q3: What is the effect of the Global economy on India?
A3: Many analysts are just beginning to understand that we are living in a near-deflationary World economy and many still don't understand that the Global financial crisis (2008) was more akin to the Great Depression than the worst post-war recession.[i] This was masked to a large extent by US QE till 2011 and in the oil/energy market till 2013, by the Chinese debt bubble.  What this means is that the standard effects of monetary and fiscal and economic co-relations that analysts have got used to in the inflationary post-war world have been disrupted and often yield wrong answers.
      Though low aggregate demand in developed countries was important in triggering deflationary trends, it is has been underpinned by excess supply from continued production and investment in China unmindful of the near zero or negative returns. The largest effect of Chinese over-supply is on "un-differentiated tradable goods", which in earlier analysis of Indian economy I have termed  "Globalised (part of the) Corporate sector". 
   Coming specifically to the Indian economy, both the decline in oil prices, from which India benefits and the collapse of nominal sales, revenues and profits in the "Globalised corporate sector"(which surprised analysts) are the direct results of the demand supply imbalances in  "undifferentiated tradable goods." As any improvement in this sector depends on US-EU actions on fiscal policy and Chinese actions in abandoning its investment-export growth model, not much relief can be expected in the next few years. Consequently India has to focus on reforming policies that either constrain or could drive the growth of the non-globalised parts of the economy. This includes Infrastructure, Agriculture, Education, Real Estate and Construction, Defense and substantial segments of the Manufacturing sector

Fiscal Deficit & Monetary Policy

Q4: The analysis said meeting fiscal deficit target at 3.9 per cent in the current financial year would be challenging due to decline in nominal gdp growth, though the target would be met. Next year, the fiscal deficit target could be relooked at but no decision has been taken as yet as gains from declining prices would not be much, seventh pay commission is there and OROP is there. Your take?
A4: As I said after pay commission report, I Expect the current year's fiscal deficit target to be met. The greater challenge is from the equity sale targets, given the decline in the stock market since the budget. 
     For 2016-17, I believe there is a clear choice between (a) Sticking to announced fiscal target & loosening monetary policy in line with the decline in CPI inflation, which requires a repo rate cut of another 75 bps, or (b) holding monetary policy tight (much tighter in real terms than it was 18months ago) and letting fiscal targets slip by raisin govt investment in infrastructure. In my view the former choice is a better one for revival of corporate investment & growth, given other complementary policies.

Q5: How much of a repo cut do you think is still required.
A5: Inflation as measured by both the CPI and the GDP Private consumption deflator PFCE) have fallen dramatically in the past two years. The PFCE deflator has fallen from peak inflation rate of 11.3% in the 3rd quarter of 2013-14 (ie Oct-Dec 2013) to 1.4% in the 2nd quarter of 2015-16 (ie jul-Sept 2015). Similarly CPI inflation has declined from a peak of 11.7% Novemebr 2013 to 5.4% in November 2015 (ie -6.3% ). Over the same period the repo rate has been reduced by 1% (or 1.25% if taken from the subsequent peak). Therefore the real repo has risen dramatically resulting in a sharp tightening of monetary policy over the last year despite a reduction in the fiscal deficit. This is true even if we use the core CPI inflation rate which declined by 3.4%. Based on this decline I have repeatedly said that a 2% reduction in the repo rate can safely be undertaken.  However RBI has reduced the repo rate by only 1.25% points leaving scope for a further reduction of 75 bps.
   Now that the uncertainty over the US Feds rate hike is over, I would recommend an immediate Repo rate cut of 25 bps. If this does not take place now, then I would recommend a 50bps rate cut at the next Monetary policy statement.



[i] As I pointed out at the IMF from 2010 to 2012, the use of policies that worked in post-war recessions would likely extend this cycle by at least 2 years (ie 5-7 years) in the US and last at least 10years in the Euro area/EU(ie + UK).



Sunday, September 6, 2015

Indian Economic Growth: Post GFC





Introduction

    Indian GDP data seems to have become a constantly evolving puzzle.  In February 2015, Ruchir Sharma, Managing Director and Head of Emerging Market Strategy, Morgan Stanly Investment Management, wrote, “the dramatic upward revision of the GDP growth rate is a bad joke, smashing India’s credibility and making its statistics bureau a laughing stock in global financial circles” and “Nobody really believes that the Indian economy grew at anywhere close to 7% last year, and shockingly no one is willing to put an end to this nonsense.”[i] I disagree strongly.[ii]
   In my view, more than 90% of World renowned analysts have failed to understand the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and its Impact on the World Economy. The GFC is a once in a ¾ century event, the most significant since the “Great Depression” and not just another post-war recession, or “great recession.” It has changed the nature of many effects and correlations, at least temporarily.  Non-recognition of this fact has led to inadequate or wrong policies that have delayed the global recovery. This note focuses on the Indian economy, and the change in  co-relations between the Indian Corporate sector and the overall economy.

Economic Growth

         Since 2013-4 Indian GDP growth has been on a gradually rising trend : From about 6.9% to about 7.3% over  9 quarters. The latest data for the first Quarter of 2015-16 at 7% (y-o-y) is below this two year trend. But two demand side drivers of sustained recovery were above their trend lines in the first quarter:  Private Consumption growth has trended from about 6.0% to about 6.7% and was at 7.4% in the first quarter, significantly above the trend.  Fixed investment growth which has been virtually flat at 4%, grew at 4.9% (y-o-y), significantly higher than in last eight quarters.  These two factors give confidence that  GDP will remain on trend for the rest of the year, giving us a growth rate between 7.5% to 8% for the year 2015-16.  Foreign trade is an area of concern as export growth has been negative for the past four quarters and the reduction in imports due to falling commodity prices may be exhausted by the end of the year. Thus declining net exports could act as a drag on the economy.  As I had warned in IE (June 6th, 2015), the external environment remains a drag on corporate investment and growth recovery.[iii]

Corporate Decoupling

   The opening of the Indian economy in the 1990s forced the Indian corporate to compete and become stronger by building World scale plants and quality products. Corporate investment and growth therefore led the India growth story in the 2000s and was highly co-related with it.  The GFC has disturbed this co-relation, aided by misplaced notions of fiscal austerity and “moral hazard” in Developed countries, by reducing global demand dramatically. Non-market economy China, given its export-investment growth model with 45%+ investment rates, continued to build new capacity in tradable goods, unmindful of declining profitability. The consequent excess capacity put increased pressure on the profits and reinvestment of the globalized Indian corporate sector, once fiscal-monetary-ECB bubble of 2010-11 was pricked and profit enhancing efficiency improvements were exhausted around 2012-13. Thus the cyclical investment recovery that most analysts expected by 2013-14, has been delayed further.[iv]

Policy Options

   Though recovery of the globalized part of the corporate sector during 2015-16 is likely to depend  on the strength of the US economic recovery, other parts of the sector are more intimately related to domestic policy. The shift in fiscal policy from consumption & transfers to infrastructure investment will increase the fiscal multiplier and raise demand for both infrastructure companies and consumer durable companies. The acceleration of fixed investment growth in the first quarter and the above trend growth of 6.9% of the construction sector are suggestive.  Falling inflation has raised the real interest rates and thus tightened monetary policy. Restoring the real interest rate to a level that accounts for a projected end year CPI inflation of less than 5.5% will remove the policy constraints on growth of interest-sensitive sectors like automobiles and real estate thus stimulating durables investment and growth.[v]  The efforts to reduce “tax terrorism” have smacked of two steps forward one step backward undermining the credibility of government. The increase in paperwork linked to the black money bill or the misuse of its draconian powers, could erode credibility further.  Government, Central and State,  must ensure that both on the tax front and on “Ease of Doing Business” the changes reach down to the ground level where the vast majority of  business (tiny, small and medium) operate.  This will give greater confidence to all business, including corporate and Foreign Direct investors to accelerate investment plans.

China Uncertainty

    Recent developments in China, were a shock to those who believed that China’s CCP led economy is a market economy like any of a 100 others. It was not a surprise to those analysts who have been predicting a growth slowdown based on long term trends and/or knew the medium term dangers of creating a credit fueled, investment bubble.  However, even those who have been watching for signs of economic slowdown (excess capacity in manufacturing & real estate) below the officially revealed growth rate of 7%, were surprised by the quality of economic management displayed in the creation & pricking of the China stock market bubble.  This loss of invincibility will have more lasting impact than any short-term turmoil and uncertainty created by it and the subsequent Yuan devaluation.
  In the short term we need to watch out for dumping by stressed Chinese firms, ensure that our real effective exchange rate doesn’t appreciate and stick to our Revenue deficit targets to minimize vulnerability to shifts in capital inflow-outflows. In the longer term a decline in China’s growth and investment will reduce excess capacity in manufacturing and benefit India, and we will benefit only if we pursue our reforms more effectively.

Conclusion 

 The Indian economy seems to be on a trend line of slow, gradual recovery to a level of 7.5% growth. Attaining the potential growth of 8.5% is only possible if Corporate profitability, internal resource generation and investment growth revive.  This requires an implementation of the reforms announced in the last two budgets, along with the macro-economic re-balancing measures outlined above.   It appears unlikely that the economy can reach and sustain 8.5% growth without the Corporate sector recovering its role as driver of fixed investment and productivity growth.[vi]
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A version of this article appeared in the Indian Express, Editorial page on September 7, 2015 under the banner, “Some Home economics”. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/some-home-economics/  .


[ii]  Indian Growth Puzzle, Policy Paper No. WsPP 3/2015, New Delhi, April 2015.  https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkcmFydmluZHZpcm1hbml8Z3g6NDg5YTE1ZDM5ZTU2MWNiMQ
[vi]  “The J curve of Productivity and Growth: Indian Manufacturing Post-Liberalization,” (with Danish Hashim) IMF Working Paper, No WP/11/263.  July, 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25029.0 .