Saturday, August 23, 2014

BHARATIYA VIKAS NITI SANSTHAN (BVNS): Indian Development Policy Institute (IDPI)



INTRODUCTION

      The honorable Prime Minister announced to the Nation in his independence day address that,  we will replace the Planning Commission with a new institution having a new design and structure, a new body, a new soul, a new thinking, a new direction, a new faith towards forging a new direction to lead the country based on creative thinking, public-private partnership, optimum utilization of resources, utilization of youth power of the nation, to promote the aspirations of state governments seeking development, to empower the state governments and to empower the federal structure. Very shortly, we are about to move in a direction when this institute would be functioning in place of Planning Commission.”
     The abolition of the Planning Commission means that there will be no National five year plans, no annual plans related to it or flowing from it, and no meetings of Chief Ministers in Delhi to discuss “State Plans.”  Correspondingly there will be no ‘plan allocations’ or financial approvals (by the erstwhile PC or the new institution). The mandate of the National Development Council would have to be modified (perhaps) by replacing “Plan” by “Policies” and “Planning Commission” by BVNS/IDPI). The distinction between Plan and non-plan expenditures will also dis-appear and needs to be replaced by the economic (functional) distinction between “consumption” and “investment” expenditure, with ‘repair and maintenance” of assets, included in the latter.  Its treatment as “revenue” expenditure in government budgets leads to neglect and deterioration of physical assets. By definition, “current” expenditures have a ‘short’ and “investment” a ‘long’ time horizon.
The Finance Commission, set up under the constitution, with a fresh set of members every five years, to recommend the division of tax revenues between Center & States and Grants in Aid from the Center to the States, focusses on economic & social needs during the five years. Though “Grants in Aid” can cover “capital” Grants, these are based on demands put forward by States,  comments by Center (with inputs from the Planning Commission), and any expert who wants to depose before the FC or is requested by the FC to do so.  With the abolition of the PC, inputs based on systematic research and integrated analysis of long term issues and problems would be reduced or eliminated.
     The ministries of government, including the Finance Ministry, are usually consumed by short term issues with a horizon of a few years and are looking for quick answers. They do not have the time or capacity for medium-long thinking or for obtaining an input from a wide variety of relevant sources on a continuing basis.  The new institute is designed to fill this gap in government operation. Its experts can act as a bridge between the routinized political or occasional crisis driven, operation of most government Ministries and Departments, and the new ideas and thinking across the country and World.[i]  Global experience shows that there is little or no transfer of new knowledge from Universities, research institutions and scholars to Government decision makers, unless there are experts within the government who can understand and appreciate new thinking and research and translate it into practical policy advice and programs.

 SCOPE

 The new institute would combine three overlapping elements,
a)      National Think Tank that does ‘policy oriented’ research on important national issues,
b)      Policy Planning: An organization for holistically examining Central Government (CG) objective, goals, policies, institutions and programs, suggesting improvements/changes and doing “operational” planning to achieve Central Government goals,  with respect to the Central list & part of concurrent list, that come under the purview of CG ministries and departments. [ii] The Ministries would be required to give to IDBI, all data required to fulfill this role!
c)       Federal Forum for States to contribute to and gain from analysis of development goals and problems related to the States (State list and part of concurrent list handled by States) and solutions thereof.

        Unlike the Planning commission, which formally approved the detailed allocation of “Plan funds” on an annual basis, the BVNS/IDPI‘s recommendations relating to Central government ‘investment’ and CG “capital grants” to, and debt market borrowing limits for,  States for their ‘investment’, would be advisory.  This would provide to the PM a considered view independent from the parochial views of the Central Ministries and Departments. The formal financial allocation process would be undertaken by the Finance ministry, in the light of Finance Commission recommendations “Grants in Aid” to States for Investment and the directions of the PM.

MANDATE

The national mandate of the BVNS/IDPI could include;
Future Challenges & Opportunities
1.       Analysis of economic, demographic, environmental, social & international trends and forecasting potential problems and opportunities, which will affect the Nation or a group of States (over different time Horizons ranging from 4 to 20 years).  Working out and disseminating potential solutions to problems and ways of exploiting new opportunities through appropriate Policies, institutions. laws or initiatives.

Current goals & problems
2.       Definition of national and States’ goals (development, growth, employment opportunities, poverty elimination, public health, basic education & skills) in operational terms, analyzing current national, regional and States’ problems and searching for approaches/methods that have succeeded in achieving goals most efficiently (in India or in other countries). The analysis would relate to policies, institutions or programs and the most effective mix of government, private and non-profit/non-govt. organizations (including PPPP).  Disseminating “best practices” to States and red flagging methods and approaches that have failed.

Past Review & Learning
3.       Reviewing and analyzing Central and State Government institutions, policies, programs and projects and analyzing the reasons for their successes and failures.  Drawing lessons for the future and devising ways to improve current & future programs and projects.

Resources: Optimal Use
4.       Policies and institutional structure for the optimal use of natural resources (land, minerals, oil, water, energy) and human resources (job skills & education, public health).  Policies and institutional structure to promote efficient and effective use of capital resources (domestic and foreign, government, market & NGOs-NPOs).  The institute on Public Private Partnership, “3P India” proposed in the budget, could be a part of the BVNS/IDPI or an affiliated institute.

State, Federal
5.        Interact with States Governments & experts working on States’ problems, with a view to identifying issues and problems that they are seeking answers for. Searching for solutions among other States and globally. Working with States to adapt, operationalize these solutions. For this purpose it could carry out case studies or pilot projects in States.  Seek the active participation of States to meet national development goals. Devising mechanisms & institutional structures to stimulate and sustain States active participation on a continuing basis.

Advisory Bodies/Mission Groups

     The Institute would set up a number of Advisory Boards on complex issues (e.g. climate change) or issues that required detailed knowledge or expertise (e.g. legal ambiguities in tax laws, PPPs or supply contracts) or which required continuous interaction (creation employment opportunities, “Ease of doing business”). The institute could also appoint task specific advisory committees (e.g. defining the parameters of a “smart city”, propagating specific policy conclusions). 
The new Institute should immediately set up the following groups for translating the PM’s vision, as suggested in the BJP manifesto and the subsequent statements of the Government (Presidents’ address to new Parliament, Budget Speech of FM & Independence day address of PM) into concrete policies, institutional changes and programs.

Digital India Group

      This group would prepare a vision, an integrated Plan and related polices for extending the broadband network to every corner of the country and using it to provide E-gram, e-governance solutions, E-education, E-skilling, E-Public health, E-medicine, E -commerce related to agriculture, etc.

Swach Bharat Group

    This group would prepare national approach to Sewage, Sanitation, Public Toilets, Water pollution and the creation of a solid waste disposal grid and a waste treatment and disposal grid. It would prepare a plan for creating a clean India with the participation of all citizens of India, including issues like public education on health and cleanliness and using the advertising industry and other private groups to promote cleanliness.

Smart Cities, 100 Cities Group

    New Cities/smart cities to create jobs and employment opportunities, efficient use of energy and water, land use planning to minimize transport costs and traffic congestion, integration of public transport, cycling and walking. Cost efficient ways of using technology in a lower middle income country with a population of 1.2 billion. It would also address the issue of why India has slums instead of rental housing for low income people (as in developed countries) and how to change this.

Ease of Doing Business Group

   This group would document the jungle of controls that hamper business and commercial activity and job & employment creation. It would develop comprehensive strategies, legal, regulatory, administrative and political, for cutting oppressive controls and  identify detailed action at every level.

National Water Grid

      This would cover issues  of connectivity of rivers, depletion of underground aquifers, spatial agricultural policies for optimal use and conservation of water, supply of clean drinking water to all citizens. Use of flood plains of monsoon fed and seasonal rivers to store and supply drinking water.  Supply and pricing of water for commercial and industrial use. Use of waterways  for internal transport. Cross border transport and to transit across neighboring countries.

Sagar Mala Project Group

   Use of major and minor ports to promote, international and national trade and commerce, to reduce transport costs and energy used in transport.  Policy and institutional changes needed for achieving objectives(eg in Port Trusts Act and the structure and management of Port Trusts).  Promotion of economic integration of all coastal areas as well as the coast with the hinterland through integrated road-rail-river connectivity.

Public Security Group

   Reexamine all aspects related to public safety security of citizens, particularly that of Women and Children in a changing social context of greater mobility(from ancestoral village to other rural & urban areas) , the move from joint families to nuclear ones, girls studying at distances from home or in other village/city, greater number of women working outside the home, young men disconnected from family and childhood support structures. Work out legal, judicial, police and other reforms. Develop ideas for community social, sports and activities and community structures and institutions to support them.

Institutional Structure

    A radically different structure can be envisaged in which there would not be one, but two separate institutions.
        I.            A Development Policy Institute combining the role of a policy oriented think tank and the role of the Economic Advisory council to PM. Thus the PMEAC could become the Governing Board of the Think Tank and its chairperson the primary economic advisor to PM. This would cover all national issues and problems that the Central Government has to address and decide on.
      II.            An Inter-States Forum which is a re-designed ‘Inter State Council’ with its own research Staff and research departments, dealing with issues on the States list of the Constitution and parts of the Concurrent list that are under States’. This body would have much greater representation from the States, Staff with experience in States and Experts on State level issues.

Appendix: Conventional Structure?

If a conventional approach is adopted, the institutional structure could be as follows: The Institute would be managed by a Deputy Chairman/Managing Director/CEO and overseen by a governing board, with PM as Chairmen and the DC/MD/CEO as ex-officio member-secretary.  Members heading the three to five overarching departments of the BVNS/IDPI(below) would also be ex-officio members of the board of governors.  The governing board would have representation of Chief Ministers/State Ministers and Central ministers (current of former). A dynamic former CM/State minister could head the Department dealing with States’ issues. It could also have a couple of active business persons, familiar with the difficulties of investment, job/employment creation and production as members. The rest would be macro-economic, sector, industry or other experts, who head the departments of the institute. 
    The organization below the board level, managed by the DC/MD/CEO could have either of the following structures:
A.      Three major departments, headed by Board Member/Directors, corresponding to the three broad objectives outlined under the “Scope” section: (a) A department corresponding to a high quality “think tank”, (b) A policy planning department for analyzing & suggesting Central Govt.  policies, institutions and resource allocations and assisting Central Govt Ministries in “operational planning”[iii] (c) A department dealing with Issues of interest to the State, particularly those on the States list and parts of the Concurrent list.  Each of these could have a number of divisions dealing with different subjects/issues/goals (eg Transport, Energy, Sanitation & Cleanliness).  This may require a seven person governing board.
B.      Five departments headed by Board Member-directors corresponding to the five mandates:  (1) Future challenges and opportunities, (2) Present objectives and problems, (3) Evaluation of Past experiences, successes and failures, and lessons thereof. (4) Optimal use of the Nation’s natural and human resources, and (5) Strengthening the Federal Structure and greater participation of States in development.  This may require a nine or ten person governing board.
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A version of this article appeared under the banner, “What the Modi Government’s Mandate for the New Think Tank May Include,” on 23rd August 2014 at   ow.ly/ADChr .


[i] It is assumed that the Economic Advisory Council to PM (PMEAC) will be folded into the new Institution, while the “Inter State Council” would continue, perhaps in a modified form!
[ii] Arvind Virmani, “Planning for Results: Public Accountability  Information System,” Working Paper No. 1/2007-PC, Planning Commission, March 2007. http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/rpwpf.htm
[iii] Virmani (2007) op cit.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Q & A on Indian Economy

Q&A with Business Standard


Q1. The last few years has seen a shift in the composition of household savings away from financial assets. However in light of a fall in inflation which essentially translates to higher real interest rates/deposit rates, and a buoyant stock market, will we see a shift away from physical assets? if so, will this lead to an increase in bank deposits and thus impact deposit and credit rates?

A1: The Inflation expectations, sampled by the RBI still unbelievably(to me) high. If these reflect actual consumer expectations, then the shift to financial savings will only occur when they come down. On the on other hand, actual inflation is declining and if expectations follow these as has normally happened in the past, financial savings should increase with a decline in inflation. This will impact bank deposits and deposit and credit rates in the expected direction.

Q2. With the US Fed likely to phase out quantitative easing and expected to raise interest rates next year, in light of strong GDP and employment numbers, will we see any impact on capital flows to India? how will this impact the proposed disinvestment that will be unveiled over the coming months?

A2: very time there is a change in forecasts of US growth, it is accompanied by speculation about tapering of easy monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve Board and volatility in financial markets. Higher US growth combined with further tapering will lead to higher international interest rates and volatility in capital flows to emerging markets. But I believe this will be a short term phenomenon as far as its affect on India. Over any period longer than a month or so, flows to India will be determined by the soundness of our macro-economic policy and the growth enhancing (policy & institutional) reforms.

Q3. On the framework of monetary policy, we have seen how central banks in other countries are looking multiple indicators such as employment numbers, nominal gdp growth, rather than focusing solely on inflation. Do you think an inflation targeting regime will restrict RBI's room to maneuver?

A3: When the Raghu Ram Rajan Committee first raised the issue of "inflation targeting" in 2006-2007 I opposed it on the grounds that (1) Indian financial markets were highly segmented, underdeveloped & far from efficiency of US, UK markets. (2) That economic growth was still too dependent on government policy and governance actions that affected the supply side, to be treated as totally  independent of policies for inflation control and (3) We didnt have adequate predictive models for linking monetary policy instruments with future inflation, partly for the reasons 1 & 2. Since then it has been clarified by Dr. Rajan that "inflation targetting" doesn't mean that other elements such as actual and potential economic growth will be totally ignored. This "soft" version of inflation targetting can take care of the concerns that I had raised. 

Q4. The IIP data for the last few months has seen an uptick on the back of an incipient revival in manufacturing. What are your expectations going forward? do you think that the recovery in manufacturing is getting more broad based?

A4: This has been the longest bottom in the IIP in the last two decades i.e. the IIP has been at the bottom of a stretched out U. Given the unprecedented nature of this bottom, it is hazardous to make predictions with a few months of positive data. Nevertheless I believe the recovery in IIP has finally started.  However I still have doubts that the recovery will be very rapid, given the uncertainties in the global situation and the natural learning/taking charge process that a new government inevitably has.

Q5: While we are seeing an uptick in various indicators such as auto sales, why are sales of commercial vehicles lagging?

A5: The former is an indicator of reviving consumption, while the latter is linked to investment. The revival of the investment cycle was expected by informed analysts to lag that of the consumption one.

Q6: On inflation, do you think the fall is temporary or permanent, especially in light of firming up of fruits and vegetable prices? how do you think inflation will trend in the coming months?

A6: Because of the importance of seasonality in vegetables, fruits and many other agricultural commodity it is very important to look either at de-seasonalised data when talking about month to month changes (eg June 2014 to July 2014) or to look at the annual change (July 2014 over July 2013 & June 2014 over June 2013). Overall I believe that Inflation is on downward trend at this point. However the uncertainty arising from poor monsoon in certain regions and oil price spikes cannot be ignored.

Other Questions


Q1:  What is the likely effect of the anticipated taper in US Feds Monetary policy

A1: This will lead to a rise in US and global interest rates with the expected increase in Asset price adjustments. Consequently, capital flows into and out of Indian stock market and debt instruments will also be affected. However, in my judgement these effects will be short term. Medium term capital flow will be driven by expectations about the speed of recovery of Indian growth, speed of decline of inflation and economic reforms to bring these two about. Capital inflows will resume quickly if there is confidence that Indian reforms will ensure growth recovery and inflation decline.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

INDIA and WTO: Distinguishing GeoPolitics From Economics



Introduction

    At the start of the Doha Round of WTO negotiations, I warned against confusing the Economics and GeoPolitics of WTO negotiations [Virmani(2003)]. I quote extensively from this note (below) because it remains relevant today, in the context of the decision of the Indian Government to make approval of the agreement of “Trade Facilitation” contingent on a commitment to revise the agreement on Food subsidies.  I conclude with an economic analysis of protection and subsidies that clarifies the economic issues and puts them in proper perspective

Geo-Politics Of Negotiations

 “Economic theory and empirical analysis as understood and accepted by academics in the USA, Europe and the emerging market economies, says that removal of controls, restrictions and obstacles to Imports will by and large lead to an increase in the welfare of both the importing and the exporting countries.  Then why is it that each country ignores what its own academics tell it with respect to policy reforms and focuses mostly on the import restrictions imposed by other countries on its export items (whether these are goods, services or factors)?  The answer is politics.  In every country, politics imposes a cost on the nation as a whole while benefiting some sub-set of individuals.  The geopolitics of negotiations is motivated by a desire to transfer some of the national costs of policy distortions onto other countries, while retaining as much of the benefits for sub-groups within the country.  A good example of this from the rich countries is the multi-fibre agreement (MFA).
One implication of this strategic approach to multilateral economic rules is that there can be an apparent dichotomy between our domestic reform intentions and actions and our public posture and negotiating stance at WTO.  Economic analysis must drive our (autonomous) reforms in the external sector irrespective of what happens (or does not happen) at WTO.  That is, liberalisation is beneficial to the country and must continue independent of the WTO and at a pace and timing of our choice.  Economic analysis also provides us with the true costs and benefits to our citizens, of specific policy changes.  This forms the basis of our evaluation of what rules we should be willing to accept in the negotiations- those resulting in policy change that have a higher benefit to us in any case.  Conversely it also determines which changes we should resist conceding (those that have higher cost).  The public position that we take at the negotiation need not however lay all this out publicly for other countries. In the tactics and strategy of negotiations, politics/geo-politics will inevitably play a substantial role.” Virmani(2003)

Trade Facilitation

“Trade facilitation is the global equivalent of the Indian mantra,  ‘red tape and bureaucracy’ in international trade (import-export) system.  Trade facilitation would directly address this problem on which there is a national consensus (with the exception of the customs bureaucracy).”
“From the perspective of politics/geo-politics therefore, it is quite rational for India to concede to others on any of the Singapore issues if and only if we gain concessions and benefits in other areas. In other words we must use these as counters to bargain for what would not be available to us otherwise.  It should be remembered however that these bargains are sometimes informal, on the sidelines of the formal negotiations or a meeting in another capital.” Virmani(2003)

WTO Negotiations on Agriculture

                “Agriculture is an area where the economic arguments of rich countries are very weak (because of high subsidies) while those of poor countries are relatively strong.  It is quite clear that many countries in the EU and to a lesser extent the USA are hostage to agriculture producers who constitute a small fraction of their population.  On our side a large proportion of the population is dependent on agriculture, lives in rural areas, is very poor and less educated and has little access to up to date and relevant knowledge.  This puts their lively hood and sometimes even their survival at risk from exogenous shocks.  Over the last few years we have also raised the import duties on a number of agricultural products above the peak rate.[1] The inter-ministerial expert group argued that in the interest of economic efficiency, these should be brought down to the peak rate, with an intermediate step of two times the peak rate.  In the meanwhile, we should carry out a thorough de-control and reform of the agriculture, agro-processing and food retail sectors (as detailed in a Planning commission working paper).[2]
As far as the WTO negotiations are concerned, however, offence is the best form of defence.  We should marshal the global NGOs to expose the hypocrisy of the rich countries vis-à-vis free trade and verbal concern for the poor (while giving subsidies to rich farmers that destroy poor agriculturists jobs).  The outcome of this will either be a stalemate (both rich and poor countries retain their preferred distortions) or less likely a trade-off relating to (one or more of) the Singapore issues.  A commitment to reduce rich country agricultural subsidies in return for a reduction in (bound) tariff rates on agricultural goods in poor countries the third but least likely possibility.” Virmani (2003)

Economics Of Food Subsidy

    In several articles during the last year I opposed the Food Security Bill on the grounds that it was barking up the wrong tree. As I showed the real problem is child malnutrition and this requires improved sanitation not more food.[i]  However, we now have the food security Act and the Govt. has to implement it as it stands, until it is amended or redirected.  If the pessimistic calculations of the fiscal critics of the Act come true, implementation will involve huge subsidies. There is a fear in the Indian bureaucracy, that unless the exiting WTO subsidy limits are changed, India could be constantly in the dock at the WTO, having to answer to Global agricultural exporters for domestic subsidies.  To put this fear in perspective, we need to understand the three aspects of Agricultural protection-subsidy:
(1)   Production Subsidies (Sf)
    Subsidies on agricultural inputs given to the farmer, such as fertilizer, electricity and water, that reduce the cost of production. If the subsidy per unit of output is Sf  =  s Pd  this will reduce domestic market price from Pd to Pd’ = Pd  - Sf  = (1-s) Pd  . The last WTO agreement on Agriculture puts a limit on production subsidies of 10% based on a three year average of prices prevailing at the time the agreement was signed (1986-88). This is clearly outdated and needs to be updated to current/recent price levels. Once this is done a 10% subsidy limit would mean that input subsidies cannot exceed 1.8% of GDP (as GDP from agriculture is about 18% of total GDP).  Current input subsidies are less than 1% of GDP.[ii] To pump even more than this amount into agriculture input subsidies instead of into enhancement of agricultural productivity, would be reflective of very bad agricultural policy.[iii] In the medium term, direct income transfers to poor farmers could eliminate even the need for this level of input subsidy.

(2)   Tariff Protection (t)
      Protection of domestic agricultural/food output through tariffs (and QRs). If the effective tariff rate is t this will mean that with World Price Pw ,  Pd’= (1+t) Pw  or Pd = (1+t) Pw  + Sf  =  [(1+t)/1-s)] Pw  . The effective tariff rates on Wheat and rice have varied between 5% and 10% in the recent past, without exceeding the latter.
     The WTO agreements on tariffs, stipulates that the “actual” tariff rate cannot be higher than the “bound tariff rates”. Even though our peak tariff rate on non-agricultural goods is 10%, the bound rates on agriculture are two to three times the bound rates on non-agriculture imports. Therefore elimination of input subsidies could be offset by raising the import tariffs to t’ = s +  t (1+s), thus keeping the degree of import protection to farmers unchanged.
(3)   Consumer subsidies (Sc)
    Consumer subsidies reduce the price of food paid by the consumer (Pc) below the market price. Pc = Pd’- Sc = (1+t) Pw  - Sc . There are no WTO limits on consumer food subsidies.  However, our consumer subsidies are provided through the FCI which also runs the price support system for farmers. Therefore it is not always clear what part of the subsidy given to FCI is compensation for its inefficiency and corruption and how much is a subsidy to consumers. 
       Further, foreign producers argue that the MSP acts as a subsidy to farmers and must be included in the production subsidy calculation, as the Govt. does not allow foreign agriculture producers to supply FCI imported agricultural produce at the MSP. Though this point is debatable, it could be another issue for putting Government in the dock at the WTO. If food subsidies were provided directly to consumers through a food debit/credit card or a bank account (instead of through FCI), the issue would not arise.

Conclusion

    The Indian Government has stated that it is willing to continue discussion on the Bali issues when the WTO meets again in September after a recess.  It seems to me that a reasonable compromise that meets the domestic political objectives of India as well as of Agricultural exporters such as the USA and Australia is possible before the end of the year given a genuine desire to reach agreement, instead of trying to scapegoat India.


[1] See references in Planning Commission Working Paper No. 4/2002-PC (April 2002), “Towards a Competitive Economy: VAT and Customs Duty Reform,” by Arvind Virmani, for a list of items (Table 3, p 30) and tariff rates (appendix table).
[2] See Planning Commission Working Paper No. 5/2002-PC (May 2002), “Excess Food Stocks, PDS and Procurement Policy,” by Arvind Virmani and P V Rajeev.


[ii] Even if highly questionable items are added from FCIs MSP operation (see below) the total agricultural subsidy is less than 10% of Agricultural GDP.

Swach Bharat: India Needs a Sanitation and Water Policy



with Prof. Charan Singh, IIMB

Introduction

World Health Organization (WHO) released a Report on Drinking Water and Sanitation last week.   India continues to be a country with the highest number of people in the world practicing open defecation (OD) – about half of its population.  Of the one billion people practicing OD, 597 million live in India.  India’s performance is worse than that of other emerging market economies and least developed countries (LDCs).  In India 65 per cent population in rural areas (30 per cent in LDCs) and 12 per cent in urban area (6 per cent) resort to OD. And still worst, according to WHO, India is not making significant strides in reducing OD. 
In the case of drinking water, India is doing better than many other countries in the world.  But there is further scope to improve safe drinking water facilities in the country, as in rural areas, 1 per cent of population is using surface water which is considered unsafe.  
Optimal health policy requires appropriate policy for sanitation. In developed countries almost everyone has access to a private flush toilet served by a continuous supply of piped water. Human waste is channeled by separate sewerage pipes, ensuring that drinking water is separated from pathogens carried in faecal material, and taps located in close proximity, enable people to maintain personal hygiene.

Effect of Sanitation

Better sanitation helps to break the faecal-oral transmission route that impact public health and is beneficial for the household and the community.  Cross country studies show that sanitation is the strongest determinant of child survival and improvement in sanitation is accompanied by more than 30 percent reduction in child mortality according to UNDP. According to studies conducted in different countries, it is estimated that having a pit latrine in the home reduces the incidence of diahorrea by 50 percent, while having a flush toilet lowers the risk by 70 percent.  According to research in Salvador, Brazil, incidence of diahorrea was twice as high among children in households without sanitation when compared with children in household with sanitation.  Similarly, diahorrea was three times greater for children in communities without sanitation when compared with communities with proper drains and sewers. As shown earlier by Virmani (The Sudoku of Growth, Poverty and Mal-nutrition, 2007: and Under-nourishment of Children: Causes of Cross Country Variation, 2012) lack of sanitation is a major cause of malnutrition in India and across the World.   The strong externalities associated with individual and community investments in sanitation make a case for public policy and may be subsidies. 

Costs

The financial cost is very large in moving from OD to safe collection disposal and treatment of sewage effluents. In rural areas, with sparse population, costs of laying of sewerage networks are large compared to urban areas and therefore public facilities may be a viable short run option. In urban areas, problem is most acute in slums, which do not have proper sewage collection and transport systems. Further most cities do not have systems to properly process the waste before disposing it in the river or other water bodies.
Clean water, sanitation personal hygiene and good nutrition are the four foundations of good public health policy. Generally, sanitation is most neglected? The reasons could be manifold but inadequate financing and capacity constraints, especially at the level of municipalities, results in weaker national strategy.  Poverty is another barrier which results in low level of sanitation as, illustratively, a pit latrine would cost more than a monthly wage and therefore is unaffordable. Hygiene is also another predictor of public health as hands transmit pathogens to foodstuffs and directly to the mouths but is generally neglected.

Past Efforts

The government has been making efforts to improve water facility and sanitation, especially in the rural areas. To improve rural drinking water supply government has been making provisions under Bharat Nirman. The data from NSS 69th Round (NSS69), released in December 2013, reveals that 88.5 per cent of rural households and 95.3 per cent of urban households have improved source of drinking water.  State-wise, situation was grim in Jharkhand, Manipur, Meghalaya, Odisha and Kerala.   The government has initiated the integrated low cost sanitation schemes for urban areas and total sanitation campaign of rural areas. Consequently, some improvements are recorded but still according to NSS69, 59.4 per cent of Indian households do not have toilet facilities in rural areas and 8.8 per cent in urban areas.   States with poor record are Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Bihar.

New Thrust

India has been spending around 1.3 per cent of GDP on health for which last 10 years and could consider raising the level.  The government could also consider a bigger role for local governments to achieve further progress and participation.  The key recommendations would be providing community latrines like toilet blocks, distribution of soaps, and inculcating hygienic habits starting from school children. The government could also consider subsidizing sanitation projects at the level of individuals or community. Projects like Sulabh need to be encouraged further and strengthened.   The private corporate sector can also be tapped to participate in this endeavor through resources under CSR. Only then by 2019, every household would have total sanitation as proposed in the recent Union Budget.

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A version of this article appeared in the Economic Time of August 4, 2014 under the banner, “Swach Bharat: Why India needs a Sanitation and Water Policy.”