Introduction
In an earlier note[1]
I had forecast that the 2014 election campaign would be fought between a Rahul
led Congress and a Modi led BJP. Rahul
Gandhi’s speech has given us the first hint of the Rahul-Congress election
platform and strategy. The election platform is basically the congress
development strategy of “Inclusive growth” developed over the last 8 years,
modified (tweaked?) by the need to restore growth to its 8% potential and
leavened with Shri Rahul Gandhi’s personal experience of reaching out to the
common people and reviving the Congress party. By leaving the issue of a future
Congress PM open (Rahul-? diarchy), the strategy is also designed to keep the
election from becoming a Presidential style Rahul vs. Modi election.
The election platform of the Modi led BJP is
also reasonably clear, based as it is on governance and his experience of
maintaining fast economic growth and job creation in Gujarat and the provision
of Public Goods and services through his administrative abilities. At the same time he is likely to leave it to
his social critics to arouse the BJP’s Hindutva base by criticizing his
leadership of Gujarat during the 2002 riots, with perhaps some help from RSS
affiliates. These strategies will be
designed to subtly polarize the voters and attract them towards the two
National parties and away from State parties that depend heavily on cast, creed
and regionalism.
Election Strategy
Consider a grading based on the each
parties program (Cong/BJP) and the ability of the potential leader (Rahul/Modi)
to achieve results (positive & negative).
Three dimensions are likely to figure in the election discourse: Social inclusion, Economic Growth &
Development and Domestic & National security (plus a net/overall
grade). Putting oneself into the
hypothetical persona of neutral analyst with a nationalist, liberal
perspective, the tentative scores for the two national parties are, (i) Rahul
led Congress: A, B+ and B on the three dimensions with a net score of B+ and (ii) Modi led BJP: C+, A and A- with a
net of B+. Any ranking can be disputed
by committed supporters, particularly as it relates to likely future
performance. Our purpose is however the very limited one of analyzing potential
election strategies. Two points emerge
from this exercise: One that on basis of net score it may be difficult for
voters to choose between the two National parties, so traditional supporters of
each are likely to vote for their historically favored party, even if they had
drifted away in the last two elections. Two that new, independent, undecided voters
are likely to vote for the party whose score is higher on the dimension that is
more important to them. Those who care
very strongly about social liberalism are likely to gravitate to the Rahul
Congress, while those who care strongly about liberal economic policy outcomes
are likely to drift to the BJP. Those
who care more about caste and region, will likely vote for the State parties. On balance the urban vote is likely to shift
back from Congress to BJP, while the rural vote share of the Congress could
increase to partially offset this. The
challenge for both parties will be to win back the younger, more mobile voters
from among those whose families switched to the State parties during the last
10-15 years.
Post-Poll BJP
The
National party which gets significantly higher number of seats along with its
limited pre-election partners will have a better chance of forming the
government. Analysts have said that an ambiguous
result will favor the Congress, given the reluctance of parties like JD(U), BJD
and TDP to join a government with Modi as PM.
My analysis suggests that the BJP-NDA may solve this conundrum by making
L K Advani PM, Narendra Modi as Deputy PM in charge of the economy and perhaps Nitish
Kumar as DPM for social policy. This may
have the collateral benefit of allaying fears within the BJP and the RSS of
Modi’s “dictatorial” tendencies.
Pre-Poll Congress
Does this new post-election scenario,
require new thinking on the part of the Rahul Congress? For one it requires a complete extirpation of
any residual complacency in the Congress with respect to economic reforms and
economic growth. The government, fully
and whole heartedly supported by the party, must get down in the trenches to
carry out every possible governance and economic reform that can revive
economic growth within the next twelve months.
Two, they must move to the center on social laws, expenditures and
programs. There is an impression among
the Urban middle class that social policy has been driven to an extreme by philosophers,
poets and dreamers, without regard to scientific analysis and much understanding
of the severe limitations imposed by the overburdened, broken and corrupt bureaucratic
system that has to implement this policy.
The emerging middle class is unlikely to vote on the basis of promises
and programs that transfer 70% to 85% of money to administrators and politicians.
Conclusion
The economic growth achievements of
Narendra Modi can only be countered by the growth achievements of the
Congress-UPA government. The Congress
cannot assume that even if it wins fewer seats than the BJP, most potential
post-pol allies of the BJP can be persuaded to abandon the Modi led BJP. They may flock to an Advani-Modi led NDA
government.
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