India's Second Wave, part 3

 

4. Supper spreader Events

Several events have been mentioned as super spreader events responsible for the second wave in India. These include the farmers agitation on the out skirts of Delhi, which could have affected Punjab, Haryana. Rajasthan and Delhi, the election rallies in five States which went to the pols in April and the Kumbh Mela. It is especially important to distinguish between events which were responsible for the explosive spread of cases and those which could help spread the corona virus cases.

The farmers rally started in the second week of August and continued till Republic Day in end-January,and perhaps in changed form subsequently. During most of this period the rate of growth of cases in Punjab continued to decline and remained low till mid-February.

The Tamil Nadu Election was scheduled for April 6^th but the electioneering started at least a month before the election. During these 31 days the rate of growth of cases increased slowly but steadily, but the break-out had already occurred in February. In Kerala, where the election was on the same day, in contrast, the growth rate was declining for a little less than half the period, but accelerating in the rest of the period, contributing to the spread. In Assam the elections were from 27-29 April, so that the growth rate of cases was accelerating during the preceding 31 days of campaigning and broke out during the period. In West Bengal the five-phase election was strung out over a month from 27^th March to 29^th April, with campaign dragging out over two months. The rate of growth of cases increased steadily, with break out occurring two weeks before the campaigning ended.

The Kumbh Mela in Uttarakhand was scheduled from April 12^th to April 27^th. The rate of growth of cases in Uttarakhand had been accelerating steadily since 25^th February and accelerated sharply in the weeks before the Kumbh Mela started. The breakout did, however, occurred on April 21. The breakout in every other State, besides Kerala occurred before the Mela started (table 2).  It cannot therefore be a cause of the explosive second wave, but can contribute to its continuing spread.

5. Old and New Mutation

 We can also compare the estimated S curves of the original virus and the new mutations.  The estimated parameters of the original virus (table 1) and new variants (table 2) can be used to compare the speed of spread of the original corona virus, with the speed of spread of its variants (table 3). The numbers in the column titled “days” are all negative, while those in the column titled “speed” are all positive. This shows that the mutations spread much faster in these States and across India. The all-India comparing is shown in figure 6, with the inflection point being reached 140 days earlier (table 3). The mutations responsible for India’s second wave clearly spread much faster than the original version of the virus. This echoes what was found in earlier studies of speed of spread of UK variant of the virus.

 The first & last columns of table 3, titled Max and Max(%) respectively, show that the maximum spread of the mutations is higher by 1.4 mi (13%) at all India level(figure 6). The projected spread of mutations is similarly higher in Punjab (+43%), Maharashtra (+50%), J&K (24%), Chhattisgarh (+61%), Gujarat (+34%), Madhya Pradesh (+36%), and UP (43%).  Lower peaks are projected only in Karnataka (-79%) and Delhi (-18%). The peaks are unaffected in Tamil Nadu and Haryana.

  The first & last columns of table 3, titled Max and Max(%) respectively, show that the maximum spread of the mutations is higher by 1.4 mi (13%) at all India level(figure 6). The projected spread of mutations is similarly higher in Punjab (+43%), Maharashtra (+50%), J&K (24%), Chhattisgarh (+61%), Gujarat (+34%), Madhya Pradesh (+36%), and UP (43%).  Lower peaks are projected only in Karnataka (-79%) and Delhi (-18%). The peaks are unaffected in Tamil Nadu and Haryana.

 

6. Conclusion

 This 3 part blog shows that the sharpness and ferocity of the second wave, immediately after the first wave had subsided, can only be explained by the arrival of mutants and variants that spread significantly faster than the original Corona virus. Even when the Active cases were declining significantly across every State, reports started trickling in of laxity of the public at marriage parties and other social events. This was followed by across-the-board failure to follow the basic lessons of masking, distancing, and extreme care and caution in eating, drinking and talking with family, friends, colleagues, indoors and in poorly ventilated spaces without good air filtration systems. Universal Vaccination is the only long term solution, but given the danger of other new mutations emerging, we will have to follow the masking and distancing protocols and hand washing & sanitization procedures for the next 9-12 months.